Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 3 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index −0.085 to 11.61.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.61 (−0.086)
- In: 11.70
- Rank by index
- 31
- In: 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 4
- In: 37
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8.72 | 8.75 | +0.025 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 13.71 | 13.62 | −0.092 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.42 | 9.42 | +0.001 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 12.70 | 13.06 | +0.357 | 4 → 3 |
| Information & Influence | 11.97 | 11.73 | −0.242 | 5 → 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 11.97 | 11.82 | −0.145 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 12.89 | 12.65 | −0.242 | 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 11.98 | 11.83 | −0.154 | 6 → 8 |
| Trade & Investment | 11.91 | 11.63 | −0.275 | 7 → 8 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 336, plus 37 carried in. Maintenance 273. Spent 97 on actions (build 58, buy 19, partner 19). 4 carried over.
- PartnerSemiconductors & Advanced Computing19 credits for 1.11 levelsmctsahead of Nuclear Deterrence by 0 per cent
- BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.61 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.63 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.75 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyArtificial Intelligence19 credits for 2.00 levelsmcts_fill
Earlier events still landing: −12.3 points this round.
Tiers. Human Capital Tier 4 to 3; Information & Influence Tier 5 to 6; Production & Innovation Tier 6 to 8; Trade & Investment Tier 7 to 8.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +1.58 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +1.28 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +1.25 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.26 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +1.12 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.26 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | 0.00 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | 0.00 |