Round 1 · simulation 41 · mcts-m2.m2-bra-mcts-tier-rank

Round 2027

Round 1 of 20 in simulation 41 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.031 to 11.72.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.

Capability index: 11.72 (+0.031); In: 11.69
Rank by index: 30; In: 30
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 15; In: 0

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	8.95	8.95	0.000	6
Strategic Infrastructure	13.80	13.80	0.000	3
National Security	9.42	9.42	0.000	5
Human Capital	11.88	12.16	+0.276	7 → 6
Information & Influence	11.86	11.86	0.000	5
Governance & Integrity	12.11	12.11	0.000	9
Financial Strength	13.13	13.13	0.000	9
Production & Innovation	11.88	11.88	0.000	8
Trade & Investment	12.18	12.18	0.000	7

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2027: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 386. Maintenance 275. Spent 97 on actions (build 77, buy 19). 15 carried over.

BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.99 levelsmctsahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by -3 per cent
BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.82 levelsmcts_fill
BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.84 levelsmcts_fill
BuyResearch Talent & Knowledge Creation19 credits for 1.11 levelsmcts_fill
BuildFoundational Education19 credits for 1.24 levelsmcts_fill

Tiers. Human Capital Tier 7 to 6.

The groups that moved most in 2027, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	+1.11	+1.11
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	+0.40	+0.40
Technical & Vocational Skills	+0.37	+0.37
Digital & AI Competence	+0.36	+0.36
Foundational Education	+0.25	+0.25