Simulation 41
Brazil, tree search, 20 years, seed 41: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 14.14 in 2046; 99 actions over 20 rounds and 0 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 41
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (median simulation), 45 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 14.14 (+2.45)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 17
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- From 0
- Events
- 0 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.72 +0.031 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.76 +0.036 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.83 +0.072 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.96 +0.130 | |
| 2031 |
| 12.09 +0.132 | |
| 2032 |
| 12.20 +0.113 | |
| 2033 |
| 12.38 +0.178 | |
| 2034 |
| 12.51 +0.127 | |
| 2035 |
| 12.60 +0.095 | |
| 2036 |
| 12.71 +0.102 | |
| 2037 |
| Automated discovery step | 12.89 +0.189 |
| 2038 |
| 13.11 +0.213 | |
| 2039 |
| 13.31 +0.206 | |
| 2040 |
| 13.43 +0.117 | |
| 2041 |
| 13.55 +0.116 | |
| 2042 |
| 13.65 +0.107 | |
| 2043 |
| 13.82 +0.163 | |
| 2044 |
| 13.92 +0.107 | |
| 2045 |
| 14.02 +0.097 | |
| 2046 |
| 14.14 +0.117 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.316 | −166.4 | −2.20 |
| No shocks | +0.443 | +32.3 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.7 | −0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.019 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.019 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.333 | +23.4 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.152 | +11.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.128 | +9.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 19.51 | +9.01 | +8.35 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.50 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 17.80 | +8.47 | +6.82 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +1.33 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 18.42 | +7.75 | +7.47 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.12 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 20.00 | +7.50 | +7.01 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.38 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 16.79 | +7.39 | +7.03 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.20 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 12.50 | +7.17 | +6.79 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 17.13 | +7.13 | +6.45 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.61 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 18.06 | +6.56 | +5.64 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.76 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 17.78 | +6.11 | +5.07 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.72 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 17.36 | +6.11 | +5.83 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.12 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 14.24 | +5.99 | +4.82 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.84 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 18.46 | +5.96 | +5.05 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.82 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 17.92 | +5.92 | +5.72 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.12 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 18.10 | +5.77 | +5.46 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 18.70 | +5.70 | +4.69 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.85 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 19.61 | +5.36 | +5.07 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.14 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 16.72 | +5.05 | +4.71 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.18 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 17.04 | +5.04 | +4.81 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.07 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 16.92 | +4.92 | +4.28 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.48 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 16.55 | +4.88 | +4.38 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.34 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 13.13 | +4.33 | +4.06 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.12 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 14.10 | +4.30 | +3.77 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.37 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 15.55 | +4.22 | +3.30 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.75 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 15.79 | +3.79 | +3.24 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.39 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 12.87 | +2.44 | +1.60 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.52 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 13.32 | +1.99 | +1.65 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.27 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 8.25 | +1.92 | +1.67 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.09 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 15.18 | +1.75 | +1.27 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.16 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 12.73 | +1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +1.41 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 12.51 | +1.71 | +1.26 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.37 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 10.97 | +1.64 | +1.35 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.14 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 12.17 | +1.50 | +1.18 | 0.00 | +0.32 | 0.00 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 13.81 | +1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.89 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 13.69 | +0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.80 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 14.72 | +0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.76 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 13.52 | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.69 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.81 | +0.81 | +0.64 | 0.00 | +0.16 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 15.01 | +0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.68 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 10.04 | +0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.55 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 14.27 | +0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.59 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 11.66 | +0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.50 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 6.87 | +0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.46 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 14.00 | +0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.46 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 13.11 | +0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.45 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 11.57 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.41 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 12.75 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.39 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.54 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.38 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 14.47 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.31 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 12.14 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.31 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.45 | +0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.29 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 12.42 | +0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.26 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.87 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.21 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 14.70 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.29 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 13.56 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.20 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 14.34 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.18 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 12.53 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.17 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 12.29 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.13 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 11.60 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.11 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 14.77 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.11 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.50 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 12.22 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.06 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.21 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.05 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 11.71 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.05 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 7.54 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.94 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 10.86 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.03 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 12.19 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 11.67 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 12.84 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 13.39 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.06 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 10.12 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.04 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 14.29 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.76 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 |
Seed 41 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-bra-mcts-tier-rank. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.