Round 1 · simulation 21 · mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-tier-rank

Round 2027

Round 1 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Chronic disease advance, and the index +0.109 to 11.60.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.60 (+0.110)
In: 11.49
Rank by index
32
In: 33
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
25
In: 0
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.006.19+0.1897
Strategic Infrastructure10.8610.89+0.0315
National Security7.547.540.0006
Human Capital14.5614.65+0.0953
Information & Influence10.4810.81+0.3326
Governance & Integrity15.4615.53+0.0653
Financial Strength13.0813.14+0.0619
Production & Innovation12.8112.99+0.1855
Trade & Investment12.6012.62+0.0266

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2027: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 347. Maintenance 236. Spent 87 on actions (build 17, buy 35, partner 35). 25 carried over.

  • PartnerSemiconductors & Advanced Computing17 credits for 1.16 levelsmctsahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by -3 per cent
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills17 credits for 1.70 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance17 credits for 1.83 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerSpace Technologies17 credits for 1.47 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity17 credits for 1.11 levelsmcts_fill
  • Upside event: Chronic disease advance S19. +14.1 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.
The groups that moved most in 2027, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.86+1.830.00+0.030.00
Economic Output & Productivity+1.14+1.110.00+0.030.00
Space Technologies+0.79+0.730.00+0.050.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+0.63+0.580.00+0.050.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+0.39+0.340.00+0.050.00
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration+0.100.000.00+0.100.00