Simulation 21
Estonia, tree search, 20 years, seed 21: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 12.81 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 21
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.81 (+1.33)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 23
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Chronic disease advance | 11.60 +0.109 |
| 2028 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.36 −0.241 |
| 2029 |
| 11.51 +0.150 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.62 +0.110 | |
| 2031 |
| 11.78 +0.167 | |
| 2032 |
| AI labour shock | 11.78 0.000 |
| 2033 |
| 11.75 −0.029 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.76 +0.007 | |
| 2035 |
| 11.88 +0.116 | |
| 2036 |
| 11.99 +0.116 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.09 +0.099 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.18 +0.088 | |
| 2039 |
| Automated discovery step | 12.41 +0.229 |
| 2040 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 12.32 −0.088 |
| 2041 |
| 12.58 +0.263 | |
| 2042 |
| 12.67 +0.082 | |
| 2043 |
| 12.77 +0.108 | |
| 2044 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.54 −0.233 |
| 2045 |
| Automated discovery step | 12.71 +0.172 |
| 2046 |
| AI labour shock | 12.81 +0.102 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.341 | −172.7 | −1.40 |
| No shocks | +1.052 | +77.8 | +2.60 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | −0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.024 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.627 | +46.1 | +0.60 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.435 | +31.2 | +0.25 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.303 | +22.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 13.84 | +11.34 | +11.75 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 11.04 | +8.37 | +8.89 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.18 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 16.33 | +8.00 | +4.90 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +3.79 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 11.88 | +6.74 | +6.90 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 10.92 | +6.12 | +6.85 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.02 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 16.05 | +6.05 | +8.17 | 0.00 | −2.13 | 0.00 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 10.57 | +5.97 | +5.40 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +1.25 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 13.26 | +5.76 | +6.80 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.28 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 18.66 | +5.66 | +5.61 | 0.00 | +0.09 | −0.04 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 18.22 | +4.72 | +5.18 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.55 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 15.07 | +4.27 | +4.75 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.01 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 17.77 | +4.27 | +5.30 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.28 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 18.57 | +3.82 | +5.47 | 0.00 | −2.71 | +1.06 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 9.48 | +3.81 | +3.68 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.51 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 10.93 | +3.53 | +3.32 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.79 | +3.46 | +6.02 | 0.00 | −2.72 | +0.16 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 13.28 | +3.28 | +4.07 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.29 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.78 | +3.11 | +4.57 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.11 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 17.29 | +2.96 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 10.68 | +2.28 | +3.31 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.07 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 16.77 | +2.27 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.14 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 10.49 | +2.24 | +1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.60 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 16.48 | +2.15 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.11 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 5.99 | +1.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +1.94 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 6.36 | +1.86 | +1.41 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.41 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 14.83 | +1.83 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 14.49 | +1.82 | +1.10 | 0.00 | +0.48 | +0.24 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 7.32 | +1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +1.26 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 17.77 | +1.27 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.12 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.79 | +1.12 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.79 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 12.25 | +0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.48 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.56 | +0.56 | +0.56 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.51 | +0.51 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.24 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 15.36 | +0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.45 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 10.39 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.64 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 12.38 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.28 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 6.37 | +0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.31 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 14.67 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | 0.00 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 10.12 | +0.32 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −1.49 | +0.14 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 8.96 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.21 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 9.51 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.17 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.24 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.27 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 14.12 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.46 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 13.51 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.46 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 12.17 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.39 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.62 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.09 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 13.79 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.04 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 14.17 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.12 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 8.80 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.18 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 11.71 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.14 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 6.59 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.12 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.33 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.05 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 11.30 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 11.70 | −0.30 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −1.97 | +0.09 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.00 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.04 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 14.91 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −0.02 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 12.15 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.11 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 14.30 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 5.01 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 16.84 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.12 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.39 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.05 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 11.76 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.06 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 12.31 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.31 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.53 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 10.49 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 13.57 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.26 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 12.13 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | +0.72 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 12.24 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.12 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 12.05 | −2.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.20 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 11.36 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.07 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 9.66 | −2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.31 | −0.03 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 11.58 | −2.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.60 | +0.18 |
Seed 21 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-tier-rank. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.