Round 2031
Round 5 of 20 in simulation 36 of United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Severe pandemic, and the index −0.115 to 16.78.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2031 (the end of 2030) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 16.78 (−0.115)
- In: 16.90
- Rank by index
- 2
- In: 2
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- In: 5
- Credits carried
- 423
- In: 358
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 16.21 | 15.93 | −0.286 | 3 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 16.03 | 15.88 | −0.151 | 2 |
| National Security | 16.29 | 16.13 | −0.158 | 2 → 3 |
| Human Capital | 18.34 | 18.27 | −0.073 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 17.16 | 16.80 | −0.366 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 16.48 | 16.29 | −0.196 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 17.56 | 17.22 | −0.340 | 1 → 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 16.45 | 16.32 | −0.137 | 1 → 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 17.53 | 18.20 | +0.673 | 1 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2031: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 989, plus 358 carried in. Maintenance 679. Spent 244 on actions (build 98, partner 147). 423 carried over.
- BuildResearch Talent & Knowledge Creation49 credits for 1.03 levelsmcts
- BuildEconomic Output & Productivity49 credits for 1.91 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerInvestment Attraction & Projection49 credits for 2.27 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication49 credits for 2.23 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerTrade Facilitation & Logistics49 credits for 2.27 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Severe pandemic S10. −20.4 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. National Security Tier 2 to 3; Financial Strength Tier 1 to 2; Production & Innovation Tier 1 to 2.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Export Capability & Sophistication | +2.14 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.38 | 0.00 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | +1.16 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.12 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | +1.10 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.05 |
| Global Value Chain Position | +1.02 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | +0.78 | +1.13 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.01 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | 0.00 |