Round 17 · simulation 40 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-greedy-marginal

Round 2043

Round 17 of 20 in simulation 40 of Kenya, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.868 to 5.80.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2043 (the end of 2042) and as it left it.

Capability index
5.80 (−0.868)
In: 6.67
Rank by index
102
In: 88
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
52
In: 43
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology4.394.07−0.3187
Strategic Infrastructure5.974.84−1.1259 → 10
National Security3.132.69−0.43210 → 11
Human Capital7.777.03−0.74311
Information & Influence8.787.64−1.1397 → 8
Governance & Integrity8.007.43−0.57316
Financial Strength7.145.82−1.31922 → 25
Production & Innovation6.805.82−0.98514 → 15
Trade & Investment8.056.87−1.17611 → 13

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2043: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 146, plus 43 carried in. Maintenance 100. Spent 36 on actions (buy 22, partner 14). 52 carried over.

  • BuyEnergy Technologies7 credits for 0.83 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Sensing, Timing & Navigation by 0 per cent
  • BuySensing, Timing & Navigation7 credits for 0.84 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Trade Facilitation & Logistics by 0 per cent
  • PartnerTrade Facilitation & Logistics7 credits for 0.81 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space Technologies by 0 per cent
  • PartnerSpace Technologies7 credits for 0.65 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Robotics & Autonomous Systems by 0 per cent
  • BuyRobotics & Autonomous Systems7 credits for 0.84 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Trade Policy & Market Access by 0 per cent
  • Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −69.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 9 to 10; National Security Tier 10 to 11; Information & Influence Tier 7 to 8; Financial Strength Tier 22 to 25; Production & Innovation Tier 14 to 15; Trade & Investment Tier 11 to 13.

The groups that moved most in 2043, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance−2.100.000.00−2.100.00
Trade Facilitation & Logistics−1.94+0.400.00−2.340.00
Monetary & Currency Capability−1.940.000.00−1.94+0.01
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks−1.850.000.00−1.88+0.02
Energy Infrastructure−1.810.000.00−1.81+0.01
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure−1.810.000.00−1.82+0.01