Round 4 · simulation 32 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-score-sum

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 32 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Regional war spillover, and the index −0.682 to 6.59.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
6.59 (−0.682)
In: 7.27
Rank by index
90
In: 77
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
3
In: 3
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology3.102.64−0.46610 → 11
Strategic Infrastructure7.886.94−0.9437 → 8
National Security4.603.57−1.0329 → 10
Human Capital8.007.93−0.07212
Information & Influence8.428.17−0.2518 → 9
Governance & Integrity8.898.38−0.51514 → 15
Financial Strength8.577.64−0.93017 → 20
Production & Innovation7.706.94−0.76514 → 16
Trade & Investment8.307.13−1.16812 → 13

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 143, plus 3 carried in. Maintenance 112. Spent 32 on actions (build 17, buy 7, partner 7). 3 carried over.

  • PartnerNuclear Deterrence7 credits for 0.24 levelsmctsahead of Research Talent & Knowledge Creation by 0 per cent
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.83 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance7 credits for 0.86 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuildDigital & AI Competence7 credits for 0.73 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling3 credits for 0.33 levelsmcts_fill
  • Shock: Regional war spillover S03. −53.3 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 10 to 11; Strategic Infrastructure Tier 7 to 8; National Security Tier 9 to 10; Information & Influence Tier 8 to 9; Governance & Integrity Tier 14 to 15; Financial Strength Tier 17 to 20; Production & Innovation Tier 14 to 16; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Economic Leverage & Dependence−1.850.000.00−1.850.00
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence−1.790.000.00−1.790.00
Trade Facilitation & Logistics−1.790.000.00−1.790.00
Maritime Power−1.760.000.00−1.760.00
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment−1.690.000.00−1.690.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance−1.590.000.00−1.590.00