Simulation 27
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 27: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.32 in 2046; 62 actions over 20 rounds and 0 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 27
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 50 (median simulation), 6 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.32 (+2.31)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 0 shocks
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.05 +0.052 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.14 +0.086 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.29 +0.154 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.48 +0.187 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.61 +0.133 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.79 +0.180 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.95 +0.160 | |
| 2034 |
| 17.09 +0.131 | |
| 2035 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 17.25 +0.162 |
| 2036 |
| 17.41 +0.162 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.58 +0.172 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.78 +0.199 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.95 +0.165 | |
| 2040 | No actions | 18.03 +0.088 | |
| 2041 | No actions | Market access opening | 18.12 +0.090 |
| 2042 | No actions | 18.19 +0.068 | |
| 2043 | No actions | 18.24 +0.054 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 18.21 −0.037 | |
| 2045 | No actions | Clean power threshold | 18.26 +0.049 |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.32 +0.060 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.370 | −162.7 | −5.00 |
| No shocks | +0.131 | +10.4 | +0.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.021 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.012 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.005 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.065 | +5.3 | +0.40 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.027 | +2.8 | +0.67 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.022 | +0.7 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.96 | +5.46 | +4.89 | −0.24 | +0.39 | +0.46 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +5.90 | −0.06 | +0.78 | +0.44 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +4.83 | −0.21 | +0.78 | +0.41 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.42 | +4.92 | +4.45 | −0.23 | +0.39 | +0.31 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.73 | +4.73 | +3.84 | −0.06 | +0.78 | +0.17 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +5.73 | −0.06 | +0.78 | +0.19 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +5.07 | −0.23 | +0.78 | +0.47 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +9.55 | −0.10 | +1.34 | +0.25 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.58 | −0.10 | +0.67 | +0.15 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.22 | −0.12 | +0.67 | +0.49 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.24 | −0.07 | +0.67 | +0.17 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.56 | −0.07 | +0.78 | +0.35 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.96 | +3.96 | +3.40 | −0.24 | +0.39 | +0.49 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.67 | −0.07 | +1.56 | +0.06 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +2.40 | −0.23 | +1.12 | +0.51 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.81 | +3.56 | +2.47 | −0.23 | +1.12 | +0.20 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 15.28 | +3.53 | +2.29 | −0.12 | +0.99 | +0.37 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.40 | −0.22 | +0.78 | +0.36 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.42 | +3.42 | +2.69 | −0.39 | +0.61 | +0.51 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.87 | +3.37 | +2.44 | −0.15 | +0.50 | +0.59 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 19.06 | +3.31 | +2.61 | −0.13 | +0.50 | +0.33 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.99 | +3.24 | +2.38 | −0.20 | +0.78 | +0.28 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.41 | +3.21 | +2.46 | −0.15 | +0.50 | +0.39 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.66 | +3.16 | +2.29 | −0.16 | +0.78 | +0.25 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.76 | +3.09 | +2.60 | −0.22 | +0.39 | +0.33 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.01 | −0.11 | +0.67 | +0.57 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.57 | −0.11 | +0.67 | +0.46 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +4.85 | −0.10 | +0.67 | +0.34 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.84 | −0.23 | +1.12 | +0.67 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.49 | +2.99 | +2.08 | −0.21 | +0.99 | +0.13 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.97 | +2.97 | +2.12 | −0.23 | +0.78 | +0.30 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.54 | +2.94 | +2.56 | −0.39 | +0.61 | +0.15 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 20.00 | +2.80 | +1.46 | −0.07 | +1.56 | +0.48 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +3.31 | −0.11 | +0.67 | +0.38 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 20.00 | +2.67 | +2.02 | −0.23 | +0.78 | +0.31 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 19.47 | +2.67 | +2.11 | −0.22 | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 20.00 | +2.50 | +1.99 | −0.23 | +1.12 | +0.34 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.73 | +1.73 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.78 | +1.17 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.15 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +1.34 | +0.46 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.90 | +1.57 | +0.72 | −0.15 | +0.78 | +0.23 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.48 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +1.22 | +0.47 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.46 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.78 | +0.84 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.53 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +1.33 | +0.21 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.38 | +1.18 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.83 | +0.67 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.41 | +1.16 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.61 | +0.84 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.82 | +1.15 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.78 | +0.42 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.93 | +1.13 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +1.00 | +0.28 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.46 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.78 | +0.44 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 17.26 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.78 | +0.34 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.72 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +1.00 | +0.11 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.61 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.67 | +0.36 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.50 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.82 | +0.40 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.88 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.82 | +0.18 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.83 | +0.83 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.78 | +0.30 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.47 | +0.80 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.78 | +0.21 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.26 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.61 | +0.48 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.33 | +0.62 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.61 | +0.34 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.08 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.61 | +0.31 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.85 | +0.52 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.50 | +0.15 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.17 | +0.50 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.50 | +0.13 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.16 | +0.49 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.61 | +0.16 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.25 | +0.45 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.61 | +0.15 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.76 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.39 | +0.05 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.95 | +0.12 | 0.00 | −0.25 | 0.00 | +0.36 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.10 | +0.10 | 0.00 | −0.25 | 0.00 | +0.35 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.65 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.01 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.64 | −0.03 | 0.00 | −0.21 | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.28 | −0.05 | 0.00 | −0.25 | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.70 | −0.05 | 0.00 | −0.26 | 0.00 | +0.21 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.23 | −0.10 | 0.00 | −0.23 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.35 | −0.15 | 0.00 | −0.25 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.85 | −0.15 | 0.00 | −0.24 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.83 | −0.17 | 0.00 | −0.24 | 0.00 | +0.07 |
Seed 27 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-kor-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.