Simulation 6
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 6: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.59 in 2046; 89 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 6
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 50 (median simulation), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.59 (+1.59)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 15.91 −0.095 |
| 2028 |
| 15.99 +0.085 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.14 +0.152 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.33 +0.188 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.46 +0.133 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.64 +0.174 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.81 +0.168 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.97 +0.162 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.08 +0.110 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.20 +0.116 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.34 +0.150 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.55 +0.200 | |
| 2039 |
| Regional war spilloverAI labour shock | 17.17 −0.378 |
| 2040 |
| 17.20 +0.037 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.18 −0.024 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.24 +0.056 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.36 +0.124 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.44 +0.075 | |
| 2045 |
| Breadbasket failure | 17.45 +0.016 |
| 2046 |
| Chronic disease advance | 17.59 +0.139 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.370 | −162.7 | −5.00 |
| No shocks | +0.131 | +10.4 | +0.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.021 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.012 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.005 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.065 | +5.3 | +0.40 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.027 | +2.8 | +0.67 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.022 | +0.7 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +5.84 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.50 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +5.86 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.25 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.61 | +4.41 | +5.45 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.16 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.90 | +4.40 | +4.96 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.31 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.89 | +4.39 | +9.59 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.24 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +5.50 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.31 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.90 | +3.90 | +4.80 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.30 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.85 | +3.85 | +4.24 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.07 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.35 | +3.85 | +4.53 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.35 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.67 | +3.67 | +4.39 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.33 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.67 | +3.67 | +6.61 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.17 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.67 | +3.67 | +4.24 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.35 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.57 | +3.57 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.28 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.78 | +3.45 | +5.18 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.13 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.52 | +3.19 | +3.69 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.98 | +2.98 | +3.47 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.39 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.27 | +2.94 | +4.06 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.22 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.37 | +2.87 | +3.87 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.06 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.36 | +2.86 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −2.20 | +0.56 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.11 | +2.86 | +4.30 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.20 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.77 | +2.77 | +3.59 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.43 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.72 | +2.72 | +4.90 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.45 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.18 | +2.68 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.15 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.39 | +2.59 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.15 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.73 | +2.48 | +3.32 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.12 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.84 | +2.09 | +2.94 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.20 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.65 | +2.05 | +2.59 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.15 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.71 | +1.96 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.24 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.95 | +1.95 | +2.87 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.39 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.43 | +1.93 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.40 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.92 | +1.92 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.38 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.61 | +1.90 | +2.05 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.50 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.53 | +1.86 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.25 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.25 | +1.75 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.45 | +1.65 | +2.19 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.30 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.09 | +1.59 | +2.31 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.02 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.32 | +1.57 | +2.31 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.25 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 19.49 | +1.49 | +1.98 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.25 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.36 | +1.36 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.41 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.96 | +1.29 | +1.81 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.16 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.91 | +1.24 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.15 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.11 | +1.11 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.37 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.27 | +1.07 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.49 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.39 | +1.06 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.19 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.34 | +1.01 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.14 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.09 | +0.89 | +0.92 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.57 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.11 | +0.78 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.11 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.72 | +0.59 | +1.79 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.18 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.24 | +0.57 | +0.75 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.21 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.98 | +0.38 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.41 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.59 | +0.09 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.06 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.97 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.94 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.12 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.55 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.32 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.33 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.15 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.29 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.65 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.49 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 18.04 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.41 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.29 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.64 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.21 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.21 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.29 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.23 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.17 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.07 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.61 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.24 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 12.91 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.66 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.79 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.20 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.09 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.17 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.81 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.04 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 0.69 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.46 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.22 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.11 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 14.71 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | 0.00 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.71 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.01 |
Seed 6 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-kor-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.