Round 9 · simulation 13 · mcts-m2b.m2b-est-greedy

Round 2035

Round 9 of 20 in simulation 13 of Estonia, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Legitimacy rupture and Cryptographic trust break, and the index −0.528 to 10.94.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2035 (the end of 2034) and as it left it.

Capability index
10.94 (−0.528)
In: 11.47
Rank by index
35
In: 34
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 1
Credits carried
588
In: 509
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology7.527.25−0.2666
Strategic Infrastructure10.109.68−0.4195
National Security6.926.21−0.7186 → 7
Human Capital15.0514.99−0.0581 → 2
Information & Influence10.8910.07−0.8236
Governance & Integrity14.8714.32−0.5565 → 6
Financial Strength12.7811.76−1.0189 → 11
Production & Innovation12.6512.32−0.3245 → 6
Trade & Investment12.4511.88−0.5667

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2035: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 404, plus 509 carried in. Maintenance 264. Spent 61 on actions (buy 48, partner 12). 588 carried over.

  • BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies12 credits for 1.18 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Energy Technologies by 0 per cent
  • BuyEnergy Technologies12 credits for 1.21 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Alliances & Security Cooperation by 0 per cent
  • PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation12 credits for 1.23 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 1 per cent
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity12 credits for 0.68 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Advanced Materials & Manufacturing by 1 per cent
  • BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing12 credits for 1.18 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Export Capability & Sophistication by 0 per cent
  • Shock: Legitimacy rupture S05. −12.6 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
  • Shock: Cryptographic trust break S09. −30.4 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. National Security Tier 6 to 7; Human Capital Tier 1 to 2; Governance & Integrity Tier 5 to 6; Financial Strength Tier 9 to 11; Production & Innovation Tier 5 to 6.

The groups that moved most in 2035, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Information Environment & Strategic Communication−1.670.000.00−1.69+0.02
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations−1.480.000.00−1.480.00
Intelligence & Assessment−1.480.000.00−1.49+0.02
Financial Stability & Crisis Management−1.410.000.00−1.410.00
Force Generation & Mobilisation−1.120.000.00−1.11−0.01
Monetary & Currency Capability−1.080.000.00−1.08−0.01