Simulation 13
Estonia, greedy, 20 years, seed 13: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 10.94 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 13
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 7 (median simulation), 15 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 10.94 (−0.54)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 35
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.54 +0.057 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.61 +0.066 | |
| 2029 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.29 −0.322 |
| 2030 |
| 11.35 +0.065 | |
| 2031 |
| 11.44 +0.087 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.53 +0.092 | |
| 2033 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.38 −0.156 |
| 2034 |
| 11.47 +0.094 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureCryptographic trust break | 10.94 −0.528 |
| 2036 |
| 11.01 +0.072 | |
| 2037 |
| 11.08 +0.069 | |
| 2038 |
| 11.14 +0.054 | |
| 2039 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.92 −0.216 |
| 2040 |
| 10.96 +0.040 | |
| 2041 |
| 11.03 +0.072 | |
| 2042 |
| 11.10 +0.072 | |
| 2043 |
| 11.18 +0.074 | |
| 2044 |
| AI labour shock | 11.11 −0.065 |
| 2045 |
| 11.03 −0.088 | |
| 2046 |
| 10.94 −0.082 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.633 | −120.8 | −0.60 |
| No shocks | +0.989 | +71.8 | +0.60 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.589 | +42.4 | +0.40 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.401 | +28.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.275 | +19.9 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 11.10 | +8.60 | +10.88 | 0.00 | −2.26 | −0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 9.64 | +6.97 | +8.49 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.09 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 13.50 | +5.17 | +5.25 | 0.00 | −2.57 | +2.49 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 17.94 | +4.94 | +5.55 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.05 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 8.82 | +4.02 | +5.66 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 11.46 | +3.96 | +6.75 | 0.00 | −2.92 | +0.13 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 8.49 | +3.89 | +4.55 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.75 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 9.02 | +3.88 | +5.43 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.04 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 12.84 | +2.84 | +5.51 | 0.00 | −2.52 | −0.15 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 7.92 | +2.25 | +3.24 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.24 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 15.52 | +2.02 | +4.85 | 0.00 | −3.01 | +0.18 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 15.12 | +1.62 | +3.56 | 0.00 | −2.18 | +0.24 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 12.40 | +1.60 | +4.43 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 11.58 | +1.58 | +4.69 | 0.00 | −3.42 | +0.31 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 8.90 | +1.50 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 12.49 | +1.16 | +3.98 | 0.00 | −2.86 | +0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 9.44 | +1.04 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −2.13 | −0.07 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 4.97 | +0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +1.77 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.28 | +0.61 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −2.21 | −0.20 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.41 | +0.08 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.05 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 14.39 | −0.11 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.18 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 8.13 | −0.12 | +1.05 | 0.00 | −1.49 | +0.32 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 5.84 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.92 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 3.89 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.18 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 11.83 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.14 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.60 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.24 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 12.73 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.08 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.00 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.18 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 12.96 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.23 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 5.71 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.05 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 4.44 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.05 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 13.26 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.09 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 8.82 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.39 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.30 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.26 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 10.46 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | +0.97 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 11.76 | −1.24 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.06 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 4.65 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 14.92 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.06 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.19 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 7.20 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.44 | −0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 12.77 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 7.61 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.12 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 11.32 | −1.68 | +1.03 | 0.00 | −2.47 | −0.24 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 14.31 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.11 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 10.77 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 13.46 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.12 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 10.19 | −1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.20 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 10.83 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.04 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 12.35 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.25 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 7.93 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 6.96 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.14 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 12.66 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.17 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 11.26 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | −0.19 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 12.67 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.33 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 9.41 | −2.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.27 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 9.70 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.24 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 9.36 | −2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.86 | −0.28 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 11.75 | −2.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.46 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 11.57 | −2.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.60 | +0.43 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 10.94 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.04 | −0.27 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 12.52 | −2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.38 | +0.03 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 9.09 | −2.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 11.82 | −2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.31 | −0.12 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 9.54 | −2.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 14.84 | −2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.39 | −0.17 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 9.08 | −2.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.93 | +0.34 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 11.94 | −2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.26 | +0.45 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 9.18 | −2.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.91 | +0.09 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 10.67 | −3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.91 | −0.09 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 10.98 | −3.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −0.20 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 8.85 | −3.15 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −4.27 | +0.10 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 10.75 | −3.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.01 | −0.24 |
Seed 13 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-est-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.