Round 5 · simulation 15 · mcts-m2b.m2b-est-greedy

Round 2031

Round 5 of 20 in simulation 15 of Estonia, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index −0.042 to 11.58.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2031 (the end of 2030) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.58 (−0.042)
In: 11.62
Rank by index
32
In: 32
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
270
In: 246
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.886.96+0.0826
Strategic Infrastructure10.8110.80−0.0105
National Security7.507.47−0.0296
Human Capital14.8414.97+0.1303 → 2
Information & Influence10.7610.70−0.0666
Governance & Integrity15.3915.32−0.0733
Financial Strength12.9912.85−0.1419
Production & Innovation13.0012.86−0.1385
Trade & Investment12.4012.27−0.1326 → 7

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2031: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 357, plus 246 carried in. Maintenance 272. Spent 61 on actions (build 12, buy 24, partner 24). 270 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills12 credits for 1.03 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks by 2 per cent
  • PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks12 credits for 0.99 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by 0 per cent
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing12 credits for 0.97 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure by 0 per cent
  • BuySpace, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure12 credits for 0.85 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Trade Policy & Market Access by 1 per cent
  • PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access12 credits for 1.24 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Energy Technologies by 1 per cent

Earlier events still landing: −8.0 points this round.

Tiers. Human Capital Tier 3 to 2; Trade & Investment Tier 6 to 7.

The groups that moved most in 2031, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Technical & Vocational Skills+1.07+1.110.00−0.040.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+0.74+0.970.00−0.230.00
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure+0.41+0.430.00−0.04+0.02
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+0.39+0.430.00−0.040.00
Space Technologies+0.38+0.460.00−0.080.00
Global Value Chain Position−0.320.000.00−0.31−0.01