Round 2029
Round 3 of 20 in simulation 13 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Hybrid coercion, and the index −0.319 to 11.27.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2029 (the end of 2028) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.27 (−0.319)
- In: 11.59
- Rank by index
- 34
- In: 32
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 197
- In: 124
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6.38 | 6.37 | −0.010 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 10.86 | 10.22 | −0.639 | 5 |
| National Security | 7.54 | 6.91 | −0.633 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 14.63 | 14.71 | +0.076 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 10.69 | 9.88 | −0.813 | 6 → 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.46 | 15.05 | −0.411 | 3 → 5 |
| Financial Strength | 13.18 | 13.27 | +0.088 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 12.92 | 12.73 | −0.190 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.60 | 12.26 | −0.339 | 6 → 8 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2029: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 401, plus 124 carried in. Maintenance 269. Spent 59 on actions (build 12, buy 24, partner 24). 197 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance12 credits for 0.39 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills12 credits for 1.12 levelsmcts_fill
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing12 credits for 1.07 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerSpace Technologies12 credits for 0.94 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyEconomic Output & Productivity12 credits for 0.73 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Hybrid coercion S04. −28.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Information & Influence Tier 6 to 7; Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 5; Trade & Investment Tier 6 to 8.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intelligence & Assessment | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | 0.00 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | 0.00 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | 0.00 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | 0.00 |
| Energy Infrastructure | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | 0.00 |