Round 2035
Round 9 of 20 in simulation 13 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Legitimacy rupture and Cryptographic trust break, and the index −0.526 to 10.91.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2035 (the end of 2034) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 10.91 (−0.525)
- In: 11.43
- Rank by index
- 35
- In: 34
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 652
- In: 557
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7.37 | 6.88 | −0.487 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 10.08 | 9.71 | −0.365 | 5 |
| National Security | 6.92 | 6.20 | −0.721 | 6 → 7 |
| Human Capital | 14.99 | 14.97 | −0.026 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 10.51 | 9.69 | −0.820 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14.89 | 14.33 | −0.554 | 5 → 6 |
| Financial Strength | 13.16 | 12.21 | −0.957 | 7 → 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 12.66 | 12.24 | −0.422 | 5 → 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.30 | 11.92 | −0.378 | 7 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2035: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 422, plus 557 carried in. Maintenance 264. Spent 63 on actions (buy 25, partner 38). 652 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance13 credits for 0.37 levelsmcts
- BuySensing, Timing & Navigation13 credits for 1.33 levelsmcts_fill
- BuySpace, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure13 credits for 0.86 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerCulture, Language & Education Diplomacy13 credits for 1.18 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks13 credits for 0.98 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Legitimacy rupture S05. −12.5 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
- Shock: Cryptographic trust break S09. −30.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. National Security Tier 6 to 7; Governance & Integrity Tier 5 to 6; Financial Strength Tier 7 to 8; Production & Innovation Tier 5 to 6.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | 0.00 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | 0.00 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.02 |