Round 4 · simulation 4 · mcts-m2b.m2b-ken-greedy

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 4 of Kenya, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock and Market access opening, and the index −0.009 to 7.25.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
7.25 (−0.008)
In: 7.26
Rank by index
77
In: 77
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
46
In: 34
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology3.043.08+0.04312 → 10
Strategic Infrastructure7.887.89+0.0117
National Security4.604.60+0.0039
Human Capital7.908.02+0.11512
Information & Influence8.518.42−0.0937 → 9
Governance & Integrity8.898.87−0.02214
Financial Strength8.578.47−0.10117
Production & Innovation7.667.69+0.03014
Trade & Investment8.308.23−0.06512

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 161, plus 34 carried in. Maintenance 125. Spent 24 on actions (build 15, buy 10). 46 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills5 credits for 0.58 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Lifelong Learning & Reskilling by 11 per cent
  • BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling5 credits for 0.56 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Digital & AI Competence by 1 per cent
  • BuildDigital & AI Competence5 credits for 0.50 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Technology Adoption & Diffusion by 1 per cent
  • BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion5 credits for 0.59 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies by 0 per cent
  • BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies5 credits for 0.67 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Export Capability & Sophistication by 2 per cent
  • Shock: AI labour shock S08. −16.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
  • Upside event: Market access opening S12. +8.3 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 12 to 10; Information & Influence Tier 7 to 9.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies+0.61+0.670.00−0.050.00
Technology Adoption & Diffusion+0.54+0.590.00−0.050.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+0.51+0.480.00+0.030.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+0.39+0.460.00−0.080.00
Digital & AI Competence+0.32+0.410.00−0.080.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance−0.190.000.00−0.190.00