M2b · mcts-m2b.m2b-ken-mcts-index

Simulations

All 20 simulations of Kenya, tree search, 20 years, one per seed, at 2046. The representative simulations link to their own pages, told round by round.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · The experiment

Every simulation

One row per seed, at the horizon. Select a heading to sort.

Simulation	Index	Change	Rank	Tier rank	Shocks	Upsides	Most funded group
19	8.19	+1.01	65	65	0	1	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (11 per cent)
15	8.03	+0.85	68	66	1	1	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (11 per cent)
4A good simulation (90th percentile)	7.89	+0.71	70	69	1	1	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (13 per cent)
20	7.80	+0.62	70	65	1	2	Economic Output & Productivity (12 per cent)
16	7.76	+0.59	70	81	1	0	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (11 per cent)
3	7.70	+0.52	72	66	1	1	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (13 per cent)
17	7.60	+0.43	72	82	2	1	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (11 per cent)
12	7.25	+0.07	78	82	2	0	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (11 per cent)
14	7.24	+0.06	78	83	3	0	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (11 per cent)
5Median simulation	7.09	−0.09	80	83	2	1	Economic Output & Productivity (14 per cent)
1	6.92	−0.26	82	83	2	0	Economic Output & Productivity (14 per cent)
7	6.73	−0.45	86	86	4	1	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (11 per cent)
9	6.67	−0.51	88	86	3	0	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (12 per cent)
2	6.67	−0.51	88	86	2	0	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (11 per cent)
8	6.44	−0.73	90	86	5	0	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (10 per cent)
18	6.35	−0.83	92	86	5	1	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (11 per cent)
10	6.28	−0.89	93	86	4	0	Economic Output & Productivity (12 per cent)
11A poor simulation (10th percentile)	6.19	−0.98	94	86	4	0	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (14 per cent)
6	6.13	−1.05	95	86	4	0	Economic Output & Productivity (13 per cent)
13	6.13	−1.05	95	86	5	0	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (12 per cent)