Simulation 5
Kenya, tree search, 20 years, seed 5: median simulation of the experiment's 20. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 7.09 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 5
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 11 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 4 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 7.09 (−0.09)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 80
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 7.20 +0.018 | |
| 2028 |
| Breadbasket failure | 6.56 −0.635 |
| 2029 |
| Middle East settlement | 6.63 +0.074 |
| 2030 |
| 6.70 +0.068 | |
| 2031 |
| 6.78 +0.080 | |
| 2032 |
| 6.82 +0.033 | |
| 2033 |
| 6.85 +0.038 | |
| 2034 |
| 6.90 +0.049 | |
| 2035 |
| 6.94 +0.040 | |
| 2036 |
| 6.98 +0.038 | |
| 2037 |
| 7.02 +0.043 | |
| 2038 |
| 7.08 +0.056 | |
| 2039 |
| 7.12 +0.043 | |
| 2040 |
| 7.16 +0.033 | |
| 2041 |
| 7.20 +0.044 | |
| 2042 |
| 7.25 +0.048 | |
| 2043 |
| Core disaster | 6.98 −0.273 |
| 2044 |
| 7.02 +0.042 | |
| 2045 |
| 7.06 +0.041 | |
| 2046 |
| 7.09 +0.031 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.846 | −61.2 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.881 | +62.7 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.008 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.009 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.008 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.649 | +44.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.403 | +28.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 6.36 | +5.36 | +5.42 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 8.86 | +4.86 | +5.06 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 9.68 | +4.35 | +3.66 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.94 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 10.77 | +3.77 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.04 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 11.12 | +3.62 | +4.72 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 7.58 | +3.08 | +3.51 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.15 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 11.46 | +2.46 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.06 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 9.93 | +2.43 | +3.51 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.03 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 3.92 | +2.32 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 4.63 | +2.20 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 11.95 | +2.20 | +3.77 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.08 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 8.17 | +1.17 | +1.74 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.02 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 7.35 | +1.02 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.15 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 4.43 | +0.83 | +1.14 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 8.31 | +0.81 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.10 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 3.90 | +0.65 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.23 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 8.17 | +0.50 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.07 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 5.06 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.61 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.14 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 6.82 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.19 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 2.31 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 2.27 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 1.17 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 1.25 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 3.36 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.03 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 4.56 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 4.92 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.04 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 7.02 | −0.31 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.10 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 8.64 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.02 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 5.95 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 6.81 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.56 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.01 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 6.29 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.38 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 6.19 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.52 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 6.51 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.24 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.50 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.07 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 4.16 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.06 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 7.49 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.09 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 9.12 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.02 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 7.08 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.12 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 10.41 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.05 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 5.40 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 7.03 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 6.99 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.06 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 5.79 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.08 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 8.03 | −0.72 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −2.41 | +0.56 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 5.27 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.05 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 6.85 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 7.25 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.12 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 7.87 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.17 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 8.60 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 7.33 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.08 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 6.97 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.06 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 5.96 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.06 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 6.95 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.03 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 9.23 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.01 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 9.89 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.54 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 8.68 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.07 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 6.93 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 7.80 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.12 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 8.03 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 9.73 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.19 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 7.95 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.09 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 7.31 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.11 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 6.35 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.14 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 8.06 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.07 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 7.05 | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.28 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 5.70 | −1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.08 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 5.37 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.08 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 7.77 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.02 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 6.50 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.24 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 7.81 | −2.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.11 | −0.08 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 7.21 | −2.29 | +0.60 | 0.00 | −2.71 | −0.18 |
Seed 5 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-ken-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.