Simulation 5
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 5: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.97 in 2046; 75 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 5
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 7 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.97 (+1.97)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 4 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| Breadbasket failure | 15.92 −0.121 |
| 2029 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.07 +0.152 |
| 2030 |
| 16.30 +0.232 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.48 +0.176 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.63 +0.155 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.78 +0.150 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.88 +0.099 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.96 +0.079 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.04 +0.080 | |
| 2037 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 17.16 +0.124 |
| 2038 |
| 17.31 +0.147 | |
| 2039 |
| Automated discovery step | 17.65 +0.337 |
| 2040 |
| 17.95 +0.305 | |
| 2041 |
| 18.23 +0.279 | |
| 2042 | No actions | Middle East settlement | 18.29 +0.057 |
| 2043 | No actions | Core disaster | 18.06 −0.229 |
| 2044 | No actions | 18.09 +0.030 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.02 −0.066 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 17.97 −0.054 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.467 | −170.7 | −6.67 |
| No shocks | +0.273 | +19.7 | +0.33 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.008 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.009 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.012 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.171 | +13.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.165 | +11.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.184 | +14.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 16.92 | +5.17 | +4.55 | −0.35 | +0.77 | +0.20 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +4.88 | −0.16 | +0.99 | +0.15 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.82 | +4.32 | +7.27 | −0.26 | +0.91 | +0.17 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.54 | +4.04 | +3.43 | −0.56 | +0.85 | +0.31 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.04 | +4.04 | +2.51 | −0.15 | +1.51 | +0.18 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +3.63 | −0.16 | +0.99 | +0.22 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.98 | +3.98 | +2.57 | −0.15 | +0.98 | +0.58 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.42 | +3.92 | +3.69 | −0.61 | +0.51 | +0.33 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.85 | +3.85 | +4.29 | −0.60 | +1.05 | +0.48 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.77 | +3.77 | +6.53 | −0.26 | +0.67 | +0.06 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.02 | +3.69 | +3.38 | −0.56 | +0.35 | +0.52 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.94 | +3.61 | +2.42 | −0.16 | +1.68 | +0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.59 | +3.59 | +2.26 | −0.31 | +1.07 | +0.57 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.59 | +3.59 | +3.18 | −0.52 | +0.49 | +0.43 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.39 | +3.39 | +2.84 | −0.18 | +0.53 | +0.19 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.83 | +3.33 | +2.93 | −0.41 | +0.78 | +0.22 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.99 | +3.24 | +2.99 | −0.51 | +0.49 | +0.27 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.29 | +3.09 | +3.17 | −0.39 | +0.07 | +0.24 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.38 | +3.05 | +3.24 | −0.57 | +0.36 | +0.38 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.69 | −0.27 | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.64 | +2.89 | +2.83 | −0.33 | +0.14 | +0.26 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.86 | +2.86 | +3.42 | −0.27 | +0.66 | +0.39 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.82 | +2.82 | +2.52 | −0.27 | +0.66 | +0.28 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.27 | +2.77 | +2.55 | −0.54 | +0.50 | +0.25 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.85 | +2.60 | +2.35 | −0.27 | +0.66 | +0.30 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.01 | +2.51 | +2.67 | −0.53 | +0.22 | +0.15 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.36 | +2.36 | +1.87 | −0.93 | +1.06 | +0.36 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.31 | +2.31 | +2.09 | −0.57 | +0.37 | +0.48 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.67 | +2.00 | +1.71 | −0.53 | +0.53 | +0.29 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.14 | +1.89 | +1.82 | −0.53 | +0.37 | +0.23 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.97 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +1.50 | +0.43 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.09 | +1.76 | +1.05 | −0.40 | +0.75 | +0.37 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.74 | +1.74 | +1.56 | −0.55 | +0.37 | +0.36 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.18 | +1.68 | +1.83 | −0.36 | −0.40 | +0.60 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.42 | +1.62 | +1.41 | −0.55 | +0.53 | +0.23 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.22 | +1.62 | +1.76 | −0.92 | +0.60 | +0.18 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 17.09 | +1.59 | +1.51 | −0.49 | +0.53 | +0.04 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.26 | +1.59 | +1.31 | −0.51 | +0.49 | +0.32 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 17.25 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +1.40 | +0.32 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 18.25 | +1.58 | +1.06 | −0.25 | +0.44 | +0.33 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.75 | +1.42 | +1.35 | −0.55 | +0.38 | +0.25 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.37 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.93 | +0.99 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.98 | +1.31 | +1.25 | −0.77 | +0.60 | +0.23 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.49 | +1.16 | +1.37 | −0.32 | −0.06 | +0.17 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.61 | +1.11 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +1.23 | +0.26 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.07 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.99 | +0.46 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.50 | +1.00 | +1.40 | −0.54 | −0.20 | +0.34 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.32 | +0.92 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.77 | +0.56 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.11 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +1.30 | +0.44 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 17.10 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.81 | +0.23 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 16.71 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +1.25 | +0.28 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 2.55 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.91 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.86 | +0.86 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +1.22 | +0.28 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.19 | +0.69 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +1.06 | +0.47 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.76 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.82 | +0.17 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.38 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.82 | +0.16 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.28 | +0.57 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +1.06 | +0.35 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.55 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.72 | +0.36 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.18 | +0.51 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.71 | +0.34 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.46 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.72 | +0.38 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.68 | +0.43 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.60 | +0.54 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.22 | +0.42 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.54 | +0.25 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.90 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +1.06 | +0.21 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.99 | +0.39 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.89 | +0.32 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 17.10 | +0.35 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.72 | +0.29 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.67 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.72 | +0.23 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.80 | +0.30 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.72 | +0.23 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.29 | +0.29 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.72 | +0.20 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.59 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.72 | +0.18 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.24 | +0.24 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.72 | +0.15 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 15.89 | +0.09 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.60 | +0.25 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.57 | −0.10 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.12 | +0.09 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.73 | −0.27 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −0.07 | +0.12 |
Seed 5 of experiment mcts-m3.m3-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.