Simulation 5
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 5: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.00 in 2046; 70 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 5
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 6 (median simulation), 7 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.00 (+2.00)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 4 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| Breadbasket failure | 15.92 −0.121 |
| 2029 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.07 +0.152 |
| 2030 | No actions | 16.22 +0.151 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.39 +0.165 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.50 +0.116 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.64 +0.134 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.77 +0.137 | |
| 2035 | No actions | 16.84 +0.071 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.96 +0.112 | |
| 2037 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 17.06 +0.104 |
| 2038 |
| 17.16 +0.105 | |
| 2039 |
| Automated discovery step | 17.44 +0.273 |
| 2040 |
| 17.74 +0.298 | |
| 2041 |
| 18.07 +0.333 | |
| 2042 |
| Middle East settlement | 18.26 +0.187 |
| 2043 | No actions | Core disaster | 18.08 −0.179 |
| 2044 | No actions | 18.14 +0.063 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.06 −0.077 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.00 −0.062 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.140 | −148.2 | −6.33 |
| No shocks | +0.606 | +44.4 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.019 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.019 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.343 | +24.4 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.283 | +20.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.189 | +14.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 16.99 | +5.24 | +4.56 | −0.27 | +0.77 | +0.18 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.58 | +5.08 | +5.17 | −0.46 | +0.53 | +0.33 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +3.77 | −0.13 | +0.98 | +0.38 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.99 | +4.66 | +3.90 | −0.12 | +0.98 | +0.09 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.79 | +4.29 | +7.27 | −0.20 | +0.91 | +0.10 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.69 | +4.19 | +3.45 | −0.44 | +0.85 | +0.34 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.40 | +4.07 | +3.71 | −0.45 | +0.35 | +0.48 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.04 | +4.04 | +2.54 | −0.12 | +1.50 | +0.11 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.95 | +3.95 | +2.57 | −0.24 | +1.06 | +0.56 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.77 | +3.77 | +6.53 | −0.20 | +0.67 | +0.05 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.72 | +3.72 | +3.21 | −0.40 | +0.49 | +0.43 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.93 | +3.60 | +2.41 | −0.13 | +1.67 | +0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.56 | +3.56 | +2.48 | −0.46 | +1.05 | +0.49 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.50 | +3.50 | +2.50 | −0.12 | +0.98 | +0.14 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.44 | +3.44 | +2.89 | −0.14 | +0.53 | +0.16 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.45 | +3.25 | +3.26 | −0.30 | +0.06 | +0.23 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 19.00 | +3.25 | +2.95 | −0.40 | +0.48 | +0.22 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.43 | +3.10 | +3.23 | −0.45 | +0.36 | +0.34 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.68 | +2.93 | +2.86 | −0.26 | +0.13 | +0.21 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.33 | +2.83 | +2.54 | −0.42 | +0.49 | +0.22 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.82 | +2.82 | +3.42 | −0.21 | +0.66 | +0.31 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.77 | +2.77 | +2.52 | −0.21 | +0.65 | +0.18 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.58 | +2.58 | +1.90 | −0.73 | +1.05 | +0.36 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.06 | +2.56 | +2.61 | −0.41 | +0.21 | +0.15 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.37 | +2.37 | +2.09 | −0.44 | +0.37 | +0.47 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.19 | +2.19 | +1.40 | −0.20 | +0.53 | +0.47 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.67 | +2.17 | +1.54 | −0.31 | +0.77 | +0.17 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.70 | +2.03 | +1.72 | −0.41 | +0.52 | +0.20 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.21 | +1.96 | +1.79 | −0.41 | +0.36 | +0.22 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.19 | +1.94 | +1.25 | −0.20 | +0.65 | +0.24 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.44 | +1.84 | +1.78 | −0.72 | +0.60 | +0.18 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.11 | +1.78 | +1.00 | −0.31 | +0.74 | +0.34 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.77 | +1.77 | +1.53 | −0.43 | +0.37 | +0.29 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.26 | +1.76 | +1.85 | −0.28 | −0.40 | +0.58 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.94 | +1.74 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +1.49 | +0.37 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 17.18 | +1.68 | +1.50 | −0.38 | +0.53 | +0.04 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.47 | +1.67 | +1.36 | −0.43 | +0.53 | +0.21 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 17.24 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +1.39 | +0.29 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.89 | +1.56 | +1.37 | −0.43 | +0.37 | +0.24 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.46 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.93 | +0.96 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 15.05 | +1.38 | +0.90 | −0.45 | +0.72 | +0.22 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.69 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +1.22 | +0.26 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.50 | +1.17 | +1.35 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.14 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.13 | +1.13 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.99 | +0.45 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.62 | +1.12 | +1.41 | −0.42 | −0.20 | +0.33 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.27 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +1.29 | +0.43 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.40 | +1.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.76 | +0.56 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 16.82 | +0.99 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +1.24 | +0.26 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.97 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +1.21 | +0.25 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 17.12 | +0.92 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.81 | +0.22 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 2.55 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.91 | −0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.37 | +0.87 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +1.05 | +0.47 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.45 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +1.05 | +0.34 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.45 | +0.70 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.82 | +0.16 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.81 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.81 | +0.15 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.66 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.72 | +0.36 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.60 | +0.60 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.72 | +0.39 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.83 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.60 | +0.54 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.08 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +1.05 | +0.20 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.24 | +0.57 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.43 | +0.33 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.16 | +0.56 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.89 | +0.32 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.29 | +0.49 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.53 | +0.25 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 17.21 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.72 | +0.26 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.78 | +0.45 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.72 | +0.22 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.94 | +0.44 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.72 | +0.23 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.73 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.72 | +0.19 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.07 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.47 | +0.32 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.36 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.72 | +0.14 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.34 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.72 | +0.12 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 14.93 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.60 | +0.22 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 15.97 | +0.17 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.60 | +0.17 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.63 | −0.04 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.11 | +0.09 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.77 | −0.23 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.07 | +0.09 |
Seed 5 of experiment mcts-m3.m3-kor-mcts-tier-rank. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.