Round 3 · simulation 3 · mcts-m4.m4-kor-mcts-index-30y

Round 2029

Round 3 of 30 in simulation 3 of South Korea, tree search, 30 years: 0 actions, AI labour shock, and the index −0.123 to 15.92.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2029 (the end of 2028) and as it left it.

Capability index: 15.92 (−0.123); In: 16.05
Rank by index: 6; In: 6
Domains at Tier 1: 1; In: 2
Credits carried: 859; In: 508

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	16.08	15.92	−0.166	2 → 3
Strategic Infrastructure	16.32	16.24	−0.073	2
National Security	14.41	14.41	0.000	3
Human Capital	16.88	16.87	−0.009	1
Information & Influence	15.49	15.31	−0.185	3
Governance & Integrity	15.84	15.73	−0.108	4 → 5
Financial Strength	16.07	15.89	−0.183	5
Production & Innovation	16.63	16.46	−0.174	1 → 2
Trade & Investment	16.68	16.47	−0.208	2

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2029: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 1,014, plus 508 carried in. Maintenance 663. Nothing spent on actions. 859 carried over.

Shock: AI labour shock S08. −28.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 2 to 3; Governance & Integrity Tier 4 to 5; Production & Innovation Tier 1 to 2.

The groups that moved most in 2029, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested	Events
Digital & Services Trade	−0.37	0.00	−0.37
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	−0.32	0.00	−0.32
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	−0.31	0.00	−0.31
Labour & Employment	−0.31	0.00	−0.31
Artificial Intelligence	−0.30	0.00	−0.30
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	+0.30	+0.50	−0.20