Simulation 3
South Korea, tree search, 30 years, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.96 in 2056; 95 actions over 30 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 9 (median simulation), 8 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2056.
- Capability index
- 17.96 (+1.96)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.05 +0.043 | |
| 2029 | No actions | AI labour shock | 15.92 −0.123 |
| 2030 | No actions | 15.80 −0.125 | |
| 2031 | No actions | 15.67 −0.129 | |
| 2032 | No actions | Market access opening | 15.74 +0.076 |
| 2033 | No actions | 15.81 +0.062 | |
| 2034 | No actions | 15.87 +0.065 | |
| 2035 |
| 15.93 +0.054 | |
| 2036 | No actions | 15.97 +0.045 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.08 +0.107 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.18 +0.103 | |
| 2039 |
| 16.34 +0.160 | |
| 2040 |
| 16.48 +0.141 | |
| 2041 |
| 16.56 +0.076 | |
| 2042 |
| Clean power threshold | 16.75 +0.187 |
| 2043 | No actions | 16.89 +0.142 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 17.01 +0.127 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.15 +0.139 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.30 +0.152 | |
| 2047 | No actions | 17.37 +0.065 | |
| 2048 |
| 17.45 +0.085 | |
| 2049 |
| Regional war spillover | 17.16 −0.298 |
| 2050 |
| 17.26 +0.101 | |
| 2051 |
| 17.36 +0.101 | |
| 2052 |
| 17.48 +0.125 | |
| 2053 |
| 17.61 +0.126 | |
| 2054 |
| 17.73 +0.121 | |
| 2055 |
| 17.84 +0.112 | |
| 2056 |
| 17.96 +0.122 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 | 2056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.879 | −200.4 | −6.33 |
| No shocks | +1.050 | +78.6 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.022 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | −0.33 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.024 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.457 | +33.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.234 | +16.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.397 | +29.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2056 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 16.63 | +4.88 | +4.49 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.32 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.13 | +4.63 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.37 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.93 | +4.43 | +4.85 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +0.09 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.27 | +4.27 | +4.52 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.39 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.46 | +4.26 | +4.44 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.21 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.56 | +4.23 | +3.86 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.11 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.70 | +4.20 | +4.30 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.25 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.12 | +4.12 | +3.65 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.22 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.59 | +3.59 | +3.74 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.10 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.49 | +3.49 | +2.79 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.44 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.97 | +3.30 | +3.24 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.15 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.62 | +3.29 | +3.16 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.29 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.75 | +3.00 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.19 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 4.66 | +2.99 | +3.23 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.30 | +2.97 | +3.47 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.43 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.95 | +2.95 | +2.68 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.22 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.88 | +2.88 | +3.27 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.15 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.84 | +2.84 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.66 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.83 | +2.83 | +2.66 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.13 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.58 | +2.78 | +2.58 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.28 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.70 | +2.70 | +2.29 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.41 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.35 | +2.68 | +3.26 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.25 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 19.29 | +2.62 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.12 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.08 | +2.58 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.16 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.82 | +2.57 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.10 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.74 | +2.54 | +2.34 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.28 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 18.02 | +2.52 | +2.84 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 18.75 | +2.42 | +2.55 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.20 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.15 | +2.40 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.18 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.86 | +2.36 | +3.11 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.51 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.36 | +2.36 | +2.01 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.47 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.27 | +2.27 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.26 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.34 | +2.01 | +1.25 | 0.00 | +0.74 | +0.03 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.12 | +1.92 | +0.98 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.39 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.45 | +1.85 | +1.87 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.06 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.83 | +1.83 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.26 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 17.44 | +1.77 | +1.20 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.33 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.20 | +1.70 | +1.52 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.08 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.20 | +1.70 | +1.29 | 0.00 | +0.29 | +0.12 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.29 | +1.69 | +1.24 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.27 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 18.91 | +1.66 | +1.24 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.38 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.14 | +1.64 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.39 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.32 | +1.61 | +1.24 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.44 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.73 | +1.60 | +1.10 | 0.00 | +0.37 | +0.13 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.60 | +1.60 | +1.42 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.15 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.52 | +1.52 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.26 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.29 | +1.49 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.34 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 18.05 | +1.38 | +1.10 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.24 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.60 | +1.27 | +1.02 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.17 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.60 | +1.27 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.15 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.61 | +1.11 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.15 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 17.08 | +1.08 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.17 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.70 | +1.03 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.09 | +0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.60 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.69 | +0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.85 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.67 | +0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.58 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.65 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.30 | +0.34 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.74 | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.59 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.16 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.28 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.29 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.20 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.48 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.25 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.28 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.12 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.77 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.37 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.70 | +0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.26 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.87 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.54 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.19 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.12 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.24 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.49 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.19 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.48 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.10 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.09 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.04 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.22 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.14 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.50 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.14 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.06 |
Seed 3 of experiment mcts-m4.m4-kor-mcts-index-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.