Simulation 74
South Korea, greedy, 10 years, seed 74: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.31 in 2036; 50 actions over 10 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 74
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 72 (median simulation), 36 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2036.
- Capability index
- 17.31 (+1.30)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.06 +0.055 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.13 +0.074 | |
| 2029 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.96 −0.177 |
| 2030 |
| Automated discovery step | 16.22 +0.266 |
| 2031 |
| 16.47 +0.250 | |
| 2032 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 16.64 +0.169 |
| 2033 |
| 16.66 +0.022 | |
| 2034 |
| Automated discovery step | 16.82 +0.156 |
| 2035 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 17.06 +0.240 |
| 2036 |
| 17.31 +0.247 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 25 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.272 | −84.9 | −4.40 |
| No shocks | +0.581 | +41.7 | +1.24 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.022 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.334 | +23.3 | +0.72 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.246 | +16.9 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.270 | +18.5 | +0.62 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2036 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +7.20 | 0.00 | +0.68 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.44 | 0.00 | +0.68 | −0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.95 | +3.95 | +2.26 | 0.00 | +1.57 | +0.12 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.13 | +3.93 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.12 | +3.62 | +3.74 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.25 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.11 | +3.61 | +4.46 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.15 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.46 | +3.21 | +3.31 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.08 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.08 | +3.08 | +1.77 | 0.00 | +1.13 | +0.17 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.52 | 0.00 | +0.66 | +0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.41 | 0.00 | +0.67 | +0.14 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.27 | +2.94 | +3.67 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.21 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.23 | +2.90 | +3.45 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.40 | +2.73 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.05 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.86 | +2.36 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.33 | +2.33 | +2.43 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.23 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.33 | +2.13 | +1.37 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.21 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.58 | +2.08 | +2.60 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.31 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.71 | +1.96 | +1.32 | 0.00 | +0.48 | +0.17 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.56 | +1.96 | +1.70 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.22 | +1.89 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.10 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.13 | +1.88 | +1.21 | 0.00 | +0.65 | +0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.57 | +1.77 | +1.52 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.06 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.27 | +1.77 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.03 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 19.53 | +1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.47 | +0.06 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.50 | +1.50 | +1.97 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.44 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.42 | +1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.99 | +0.43 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.15 | +1.40 | +1.43 | 0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.89 | +1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.14 | +0.25 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 16.35 | +1.35 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.23 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.71 | +1.21 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.00 | +1.20 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.10 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 17.44 | +1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.11 | 0.00 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 2.54 | +0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.87 | 0.00 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 17.19 | +0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.63 | +0.23 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 16.67 | +0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.63 | +0.21 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.23 | +0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.32 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.83 | +0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.32 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.74 | +0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.63 | +0.11 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.22 | +0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.21 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.04 | +0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.20 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.50 | +0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.19 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 17.45 | +0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.64 | +0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 17.19 | +0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.63 | +0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 16.01 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.63 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.39 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.55 | +0.13 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 17.68 | +0.68 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.89 | 0.00 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.66 | +0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.64 | +0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.15 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.57 | +0.08 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.65 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.63 | +0.02 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.64 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.63 | +0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.31 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.62 | +0.02 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.64 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.64 | +0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.85 | +0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.43 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.25 | +0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.53 | +0.05 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.68 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.75 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.07 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.28 | +0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +0.03 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.47 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | 0.00 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 15.46 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.46 | 0.00 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 15.46 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.46 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.13 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.46 | 0.00 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 15.79 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.46 | 0.00 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.96 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.17 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.36 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.32 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 17.55 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.32 | +0.03 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 14.92 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.08 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.74 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | −0.11 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 16.71 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.19 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.02 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.20 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | 0.00 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 14.92 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.82 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 15.02 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.13 |
Seed 74 of experiment stress-preview.e5-kor-s02-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.