E0 · cycle-001.e0-null-kor

South Korea, hold, 30 years

One simulation of 30 rounds from the 2026 position. South Korea decides by the hold method; no shocks or upside events.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1 · elasticity at the mid point of each bracket

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome

At 2056.

Capability index: 6.21 (−9.79); From 16.00
Rank by index: 94; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 2
Tier rank: 75; From 7

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	2026	2056	Better
Capability indexprimary	16.00	6.21	higher
Rank by index	6	94	lower
Tier rank	7	75	lower
Domains at Tier 1	2	0	higher
Score sum	1165.8	445.7	higher
Goal-weighted score	1165.8	445.7	higher
Resilient score	1165.8	445.7 (mean score sum over the simulations)	higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-001. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 1 simulations, seeds 1 to 1; probes on 0. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

South Korea played 30 rounds from 2026 under the hold method, with none events, 1 times. Its capability index moved from 16.00 to a median of 6.21 (−9.79), with 90 per cent of simulations between 6.21 and 6.21 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 2026 the nation ranks 6 on the index against the frozen field, holds 2 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 7. Its base income is 888 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

No actions were taken: the method holds, so income pays maintenance and the rest is carried over.

What the world did

No shocks or upside events fired.

Where it ended

At 2056 the median rank is 94 (5th to 95th percentile 94 to 94), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 75; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 446 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: human capital (100 to 0 per cent of simulations); production and innovation (100 to 0 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

This experiment has no probes.

Surprises

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 1) ends 0.00 from it, with 0 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

No backcast comparison: this experiment does not start from a historical position [experiment_against_history].

Simulations

The simulation, round by round, on its own page.

Simulation 1
The simulation
Index 16.00 → 6.21

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position and where it ended.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2056	Change
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	1.18 1.18 to 1.18	−0.49
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	10.76 10.76 to 10.76	−4.24
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	10.76 10.76 to 10.76	−4.24
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	11.00 11.00 to 11.00	−4.33
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	11.24 11.24 to 11.24	−4.43
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	11.48 11.48 to 11.48	−4.52
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	11.63 11.63 to 11.63	−4.57
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	11.72 11.72 to 11.72	−4.61
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	12.34 12.34 to 12.34	−4.86
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	10.97 10.97 to 10.97	−5.03
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	8.92 8.92 to 8.92	−6.58
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	4.97 4.97 to 4.97	−6.78
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	9.21 9.21 to 9.21	−6.79
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	9.21 9.21 to 9.21	−6.79
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	9.59 9.59 to 9.59	−7.08
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	9.78 9.78 to 9.78	−7.22
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	9.78 9.78 to 9.78	−7.22
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	9.78 9.78 to 9.78	−7.22
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	9.93 9.93 to 9.93	−7.32
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	6.75 6.75 to 6.75	−7.45
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	7.48 7.48 to 7.48	−8.27
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	7.76 7.76 to 7.76	−8.57
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	7.84 7.84 to 7.84	−8.66
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	7.92 7.92 to 7.92	−8.75
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	8.08 8.08 to 8.08	−8.92
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	6.67 6.67 to 6.67	−9.08
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	6.83 6.83 to 6.83	−9.30
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	6.91 6.91 to 6.91	−9.42
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	6.98 6.98 to 6.98	−9.52
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	6.98 6.98 to 6.98	−9.52
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	7.11 7.11 to 7.11	−9.69
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	7.20 7.20 to 7.20	−9.80
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	4.40 4.40 to 4.40	−10.10
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	4.40 4.40 to 4.40	−10.10
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	4.77 4.77 to 4.77	−10.23
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	4.87 4.87 to 4.87	−10.46
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	7.79 7.79 to 7.79	−10.61
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	5.00 5.00 to 5.00	−10.75
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	4.70 4.70 to 4.70	−10.80
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	2.82 2.82 to 2.82	−10.85
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	4.75 4.75 to 4.75	−10.92
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	5.16 5.16 to 5.16	−11.09
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	5.19 5.19 to 5.19	−11.14
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	4.85 4.85 to 4.85	−11.15
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	5.24 5.24 to 5.24	−11.26
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	5.24 5.24 to 5.24	−11.26
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	5.30 5.30 to 5.30	−11.37
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	5.40 5.40 to 5.40	−11.60
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	5.40 5.40 to 5.40	−11.60
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	5.09 5.09 to 5.09	−11.71
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	5.51 5.51 to 5.51	−11.82
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	5.56 5.56 to 5.56	−11.94
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	3.16 3.16 to 3.16	−12.17
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	2.02 2.02 to 2.02	−12.23
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	5.72 5.72 to 5.72	−12.28
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	5.72 5.72 to 5.72	−12.28
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	3.27 3.27 to 3.27	−12.56
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	2.08 2.08 to 2.08	−12.59
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	3.30 3.30 to 3.30	−12.70
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	3.30 3.30 to 3.30	−12.70
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	3.30 3.30 to 3.30	−12.70
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	3.37 3.37 to 3.37	−12.96
Land Power	National Security	16.50	3.40 3.40 to 3.40	−13.10
Air Power	National Security	16.75	3.46 3.46 to 3.46	−13.29
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	4.67 4.67 to 4.67	−13.33
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	2.24 2.24 to 2.24	−13.56
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	2.27 2.27 to 2.27	−13.73
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	2.30 2.30 to 2.30	−13.90
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	2.34 2.34 to 2.34	−14.16
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	2.36 2.36 to 2.36	−14.24
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	2.36 2.36 to 2.36	−14.24
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	2.37 2.37 to 2.37	−14.34
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	2.48 2.48 to 2.48	−15.02

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 0.0e+00
passscores_in_boundsscores range 1.180 to 18.400
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.10 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 0 tiers (0 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 6; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-001.e0-null-kor. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: South Korea (KOR)
Position: The 2026 ratings of the National Capability Index
Method: Hold. No actions. Income pays maintenance; whatever is left is carried over, losing 5 per cent a round.
Scenario: No shocks or upside events
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 2026 to 2056
Simulations: One simulation, seed 1
Graph elasticities: At the mid point of each edge’s bracket
Income: None: the null experiment has no income, so nothing is maintained
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Improvement cycle (cycle-001), cycle 1 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 0.2 seconds in all; 836 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.