Simulation 1
South Korea, hold, 30 years, seed 1: the simulation of the experiment's 1. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 6.21 in 2056; 0 actions over 30 rounds and 0 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2056.
- Capability index
- 6.21 (−9.79)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 94
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 2
- Events
- 0 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the hold method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 15.45 −0.550 | |
| 2028 | No actions | 14.93 −0.527 | |
| 2029 | No actions | 14.42 −0.505 | |
| 2030 | No actions | 13.94 −0.485 | |
| 2031 | No actions | 13.47 −0.465 | |
| 2032 | No actions | 13.02 −0.447 | |
| 2033 | No actions | 12.60 −0.429 | |
| 2034 | No actions | 12.18 −0.412 | |
| 2035 | No actions | 11.79 −0.395 | |
| 2036 | No actions | 11.41 −0.380 | |
| 2037 | No actions | 11.04 −0.365 | |
| 2038 | No actions | 10.69 −0.351 | |
| 2039 | No actions | 10.36 −0.337 | |
| 2040 | No actions | 10.03 −0.324 | |
| 2041 | No actions | 9.72 −0.312 | |
| 2042 | No actions | 9.42 −0.300 | |
| 2043 | No actions | 9.13 −0.289 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 8.85 −0.278 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 8.59 −0.267 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 8.33 −0.258 | |
| 2047 | No actions | 8.08 −0.248 | |
| 2048 | No actions | 7.84 −0.239 | |
| 2049 | No actions | 7.61 −0.230 | |
| 2050 | No actions | 7.39 −0.222 | |
| 2051 | No actions | 7.17 −0.214 | |
| 2052 | No actions | 6.97 −0.206 | |
| 2053 | No actions | 6.77 −0.199 | |
| 2054 | No actions | 6.58 −0.192 | |
| 2055 | No actions | 6.39 −0.185 | |
| 2056 | No actions | 6.21 −0.179 |
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 | 2056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2056 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.18 | −0.49 | 0.00 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 10.76 | −4.24 | 0.00 | −4.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 10.76 | −4.24 | 0.00 | −4.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 11.00 | −4.33 | 0.00 | −4.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 11.24 | −4.43 | 0.00 | −4.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 11.48 | −4.52 | 0.00 | −4.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 11.63 | −4.57 | 0.00 | −4.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 11.72 | −4.61 | 0.00 | −4.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 12.34 | −4.86 | 0.00 | −4.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 10.97 | −5.03 | 0.00 | −5.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 8.92 | −6.58 | 0.00 | −6.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 4.97 | −6.78 | 0.00 | −6.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 9.21 | −6.79 | 0.00 | −6.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 9.21 | −6.79 | 0.00 | −6.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 9.59 | −7.08 | 0.00 | −7.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 9.78 | −7.22 | 0.00 | −7.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 9.78 | −7.22 | 0.00 | −7.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 9.78 | −7.22 | 0.00 | −7.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 9.93 | −7.32 | 0.00 | −7.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 6.75 | −7.45 | 0.00 | −7.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 7.48 | −8.27 | 0.00 | −8.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 7.76 | −8.57 | 0.00 | −8.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 7.84 | −8.66 | 0.00 | −8.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 7.92 | −8.75 | 0.00 | −8.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 8.08 | −8.92 | 0.00 | −8.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 6.67 | −9.08 | 0.00 | −9.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 6.83 | −9.30 | 0.00 | −9.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 6.91 | −9.42 | 0.00 | −9.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 6.98 | −9.52 | 0.00 | −9.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 6.98 | −9.52 | 0.00 | −9.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 7.11 | −9.69 | 0.00 | −9.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 7.20 | −9.80 | 0.00 | −9.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 4.40 | −10.10 | 0.00 | −10.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 4.40 | −10.10 | 0.00 | −10.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 4.77 | −10.23 | 0.00 | −10.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 4.87 | −10.46 | 0.00 | −10.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 7.79 | −10.61 | 0.00 | −10.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 5.00 | −10.75 | 0.00 | −10.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 4.70 | −10.80 | 0.00 | −10.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 2.82 | −10.85 | 0.00 | −10.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 4.75 | −10.92 | 0.00 | −10.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 5.16 | −11.09 | 0.00 | −11.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 5.19 | −11.14 | 0.00 | −11.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 4.85 | −11.15 | 0.00 | −11.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 5.24 | −11.26 | 0.00 | −11.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 5.24 | −11.26 | 0.00 | −11.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 5.30 | −11.37 | 0.00 | −11.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 5.40 | −11.60 | 0.00 | −11.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 5.40 | −11.60 | 0.00 | −11.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 5.09 | −11.71 | 0.00 | −11.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 5.51 | −11.82 | 0.00 | −11.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 5.56 | −11.94 | 0.00 | −11.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 3.16 | −12.17 | 0.00 | −12.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 2.02 | −12.23 | 0.00 | −12.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 5.72 | −12.28 | 0.00 | −12.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 5.72 | −12.28 | 0.00 | −12.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 3.27 | −12.56 | 0.00 | −12.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 2.08 | −12.59 | 0.00 | −12.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 3.30 | −12.70 | 0.00 | −12.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 3.30 | −12.70 | 0.00 | −12.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 3.30 | −12.70 | 0.00 | −12.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 3.37 | −12.96 | 0.00 | −12.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 3.40 | −13.10 | 0.00 | −13.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 3.46 | −13.29 | 0.00 | −13.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 4.67 | −13.33 | 0.00 | −13.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 2.24 | −13.56 | 0.00 | −13.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 2.27 | −13.73 | 0.00 | −13.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 2.30 | −13.90 | 0.00 | −13.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 2.34 | −14.16 | 0.00 | −14.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 2.36 | −14.24 | 0.00 | −14.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 2.36 | −14.24 | 0.00 | −14.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 2.37 | −14.34 | 0.00 | −14.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 2.48 | −15.02 | 0.00 | −15.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Seed 1 of experiment cycle-001.e0-null-kor. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.