Round 4 · simulation 4 · cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-allocation

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 4 of South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock and Market access opening, and the index +0.163 to 16.36.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
16.36 (+0.163)
In: 16.20
Rank by index
5
In: 6
Domains at Tier 1
5
In: 2
Credits carried
743
In: 553
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology16.0816.03−0.0522 → 3
Strategic Infrastructure16.3216.39+0.0722 → 1
National Security14.4114.41+0.0033
Human Capital17.5017.89+0.3961
Information & Influence15.7116.48+0.7752 → 1
Governance & Integrity15.8515.89+0.0434 → 3
Financial Strength16.3316.42+0.0904 → 2
Production & Innovation16.7916.77−0.0161
Trade & Investment16.8216.98+0.1602 → 1

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the evolution strategy (cma-es) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 1,030, plus 553 carried in. Maintenance 685. Spent 155 on actions (build 31, buy 31, partner 93). 743 carried over.

  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance31 credits for 2.00 levelscmaes
  • BuildFoundational Education31 credits for 1.23 levelscmaes
  • PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation31 credits for 1.84 levelscmaes
  • PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks31 credits for 1.77 levelscmaes
  • PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance31 credits for 0.73 levelscmaes
  • Shock: AI labour shock S08. −16.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
  • Upside event: Market access opening S12. +15.3 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 2 to 3; Strategic Infrastructure Tier 2 to 1; Information & Influence Tier 2 to 1; Governance & Integrity Tier 4 to 3; Financial Strength Tier 4 to 2; Trade & Investment Tier 2 to 1.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Alliances & Security Cooperation+2.10+2.150.00−0.050.00
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.95+2.000.00−0.050.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+1.26+1.290.00−0.020.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+1.11+0.990.00+0.110.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+1.05+0.990.00+0.060.00
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks+0.83+0.880.00−0.050.00