Median simulation · cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-allocation

Simulation 4

South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years, seed 4: median simulation of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.07 in 2046; 80 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.07 (+2.06); From 16.00
Rank by index: 1; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 1 shock; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the evolution strategy (cma-es) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Advanced Education 30 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30		16.04 +0.040
2028	Build Digital & AI Competence 30 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Build Advanced Education 30 Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 30		16.10 +0.059
2029	Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 31 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 31 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 31 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 31 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 31		16.20 +0.098
2030	Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 31 Build Foundational Education 31 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 31 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 31 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31	AI labour shockMarket access opening	16.36 +0.163
2031	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 31 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 31 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Build Economic Output & Productivity 31 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 31		16.48 +0.119
2032	Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 28 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 28 Build Economic Output & Productivity 28 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 28 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 28	Chronic disease advance	16.66 +0.178
2033	Buy Artificial Intelligence 29 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 29 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 29 Partner Digital & Services Trade 29 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 29		16.81 +0.147
2034	Build Population Health 34 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 34 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 34 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 34 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 34		16.97 +0.165
2035	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 35 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 35 Build Financial Infrastructure 35 Build Population Health 35 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 35		17.09 +0.120
2036	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 35 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 35 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 35 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 35 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 35		17.23 +0.141
2037	Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 35 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 35 Build Labour & Employment 35 Build Resource Infrastructure 35 Partner Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 35		17.33 +0.098
2038	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 34 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 34 Build Labour & Employment 34 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 34 Build Resource Infrastructure 34		17.44 +0.106
2039	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 34 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 34 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 34 Build Resource Infrastructure 34 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 34		17.56 +0.122
2040	Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 34 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 34 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 34 Build Health System Capability 34 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 34		17.70 +0.146
2041	Build Health System Capability 34 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 34 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 34 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 34 Buy Energy Infrastructure 34		17.80 +0.098
2042	Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 34 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 30 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 22 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 22 Partner Space Technologies 21		17.91 +0.108
2043	No actions		17.93 +0.021
2044	No actions		17.92 −0.013
2045	No actions		17.89 −0.023
2046	No actions	Automated discovery step	18.07 +0.171

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	4	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	16.96	+5.21	+4.67	−0.13	+0.47	+0.20
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.60	+4.60	+3.75	−0.06	+0.60	+0.31
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	19.90	+4.57	+3.82	−0.06	+0.60	+0.20
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	20.00	+4.50	+4.98	−0.10	+0.83	+0.17
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+6.46	−0.10	+0.43	+0.07
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+3.74	−0.06	+0.47	+0.15
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	19.25	+3.92	+3.54	−0.21	+0.28	+0.30
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	19.88	+3.88	+4.29	−0.23	+0.10	+0.31
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	18.35	+3.85	+3.59	−0.22	+0.10	+0.39
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	18.79	+3.79	+3.04	−0.06	+0.60	+0.20
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	19.47	+3.72	+3.35	−0.13	+0.24	+0.25
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	19.71	+3.71	+2.96	−0.07	+0.56	+0.25
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	20.00	+3.67	+3.19	−0.06	+1.21	+0.04
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	20.00	+3.67	+2.94	−0.22	+0.54	+0.43
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	17.85	+3.65	+3.27	−0.15	+0.23	+0.29
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.63	+3.63	+3.39	−0.19	+0.07	+0.37
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	18.10	+3.60	+3.44	−0.20	+0.10	+0.27
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	19.35	+3.60	+3.02	−0.20	+0.34	+0.43
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	19.49	+3.49	+2.26	−0.11	+0.77	+0.58
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+2.53	−0.10	+0.41	+0.26
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	19.47	+2.97	+2.58	−0.20	+0.34	+0.25
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.97	+2.97	+1.98	−0.21	+0.54	+0.67
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	19.58	+2.91	+2.64	−0.20	+0.34	+0.13
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	19.38	+2.88	+2.29	−0.14	+0.25	+0.47
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	19.46	+2.79	+1.71	−0.10	+0.85	+0.33
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	19.26	+2.76	+2.40	−0.20	+0.34	+0.21
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	19.42	+2.42	+1.83	−0.10	+0.41	+0.28
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.75	+2.25	+1.58	−0.15	+0.47	+0.34
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	19.32	+2.12	+0.79	−0.06	+1.01	+0.39
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	18.02	+2.02	+1.76	−0.33	+0.30	+0.28
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.57	+1.97	+1.83	−0.34	+0.36	+0.13
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	18.08	+1.95	+1.07	−0.15	+0.72	+0.30
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	19.14	+1.89	+1.23	−0.10	+0.57	+0.19
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	18.10	+1.85	+1.68	−0.19	+0.22	+0.14
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	17.43	+1.76	+1.87	−0.19	−0.17	+0.26
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	18.06	+1.73	+1.04	−0.15	+0.47	+0.35
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	19.22	+1.72	+1.13	−0.20	+0.54	+0.26
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	18.42	+1.62	+1.44	−0.20	+0.10	+0.29
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	17.35	+1.55	+1.37	−0.32	+0.35	+0.14
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	17.80	+1.47	+1.10	−0.13	+0.24	+0.25
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	18.27	+1.27	+0.95	−0.13	+0.25	+0.21
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.25	+1.25	0.00	−0.14	+0.62	+0.78
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.25	+1.25	0.00	−0.20	+0.55	+0.90
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	16.47	+1.14	+1.00	−0.24	+0.21	+0.18
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	17.10	+1.10	+1.01	−0.25	+0.21	+0.14
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	15.74	+1.07	+0.78	−0.28	+0.35	+0.22
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	19.47	+1.07	0.00	−0.15	+0.48	+0.74
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	16.45	+0.95	+0.98	−0.18	+0.10	+0.04
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	17.14	+0.94	0.00	−0.30	+0.85	+0.39
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	17.94	+0.94	0.00	−0.09	+0.57	+0.47
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.38	+0.88	0.00	−0.14	+0.73	+0.29
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	18.87	+0.87	0.00	−0.23	+0.83	+0.27
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	17.07	+0.87	0.00	−0.05	+0.61	+0.32
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	16.52	+0.85	0.00	−0.05	+0.60	+0.29
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	17.59	+0.79	0.00	−0.14	+0.48	+0.45
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	14.98	+0.73	0.00	−0.26	+0.35	+0.64
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	17.03	+0.53	0.00	−0.30	+0.57	+0.27
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	17.23	+0.52	0.00	−0.30	+0.57	+0.25
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	17.19	+0.52	0.00	−0.12	+0.24	+0.39
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	18.52	+0.52	0.00	−0.20	+0.34	+0.37
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	17.51	+0.51	0.00	−0.18	+0.29	+0.41
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.05	+0.45	0.00	−0.30	+0.36	+0.40
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	16.20	+0.45	0.00	−0.13	+0.47	+0.10
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	17.94	+0.44	0.00	−0.31	+0.57	+0.19
Air Power	National Security	16.75	17.03	+0.28	0.00	−0.24	+0.21	+0.31
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	17.61	+0.28	0.00	−0.18	+0.29	+0.18
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	16.08	+0.25	0.00	−0.23	+0.21	+0.27
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	13.89	+0.22	0.00	−0.20	+0.21	+0.21
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	16.22	+0.22	0.00	−0.23	+0.21	+0.24
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	1.87	+0.20	0.00	−0.01	+0.21	−0.01
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	16.49	+0.16	0.00	−0.24	+0.21	+0.19
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	16.07	+0.07	0.00	−0.23	+0.21	+0.09
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.53	+0.03	0.00	−0.24	+0.21	+0.06

Seed 4 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-allocation. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.