Simulation 3
South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.42 in 2046; 98 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 5 (median simulation), 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.42 (+2.42)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the evolution strategy (cma-es) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.06 +0.060 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.11 +0.048 | |
| 2029 |
| AI labour shock | 16.07 −0.039 |
| 2030 |
| 16.08 +0.013 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.05 −0.035 | |
| 2032 |
| Market access opening | 16.24 +0.194 |
| 2033 |
| 16.43 +0.182 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.64 +0.216 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.73 +0.090 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.86 +0.124 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.96 +0.103 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.06 +0.102 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.17 +0.107 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.30 +0.137 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.40 +0.098 | |
| 2042 |
| Clean power threshold | 17.61 +0.211 |
| 2043 |
| 17.84 +0.224 | |
| 2044 |
| 18.03 +0.192 | |
| 2045 |
| 18.23 +0.204 | |
| 2046 |
| 18.42 +0.187 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 17.26 | +5.51 | +4.17 | 0.00 | +1.13 | +0.21 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 19.60 | +5.40 | +4.96 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.26 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.32 | +4.82 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.39 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.75 | +4.75 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.37 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +7.21 | 0.00 | +0.77 | +0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.97 | +4.47 | +4.31 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.23 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.75 | +4.42 | +3.78 | 0.00 | +0.57 | +0.07 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.40 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.39 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.26 | +3.93 | +3.16 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.53 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.80 | +3.80 | +3.35 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.11 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.59 | +3.59 | +2.62 | 0.00 | +0.57 | +0.40 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.56 | +3.56 | +2.91 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.44 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +2.76 | 0.00 | +0.91 | +0.18 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 19.13 | +3.38 | +3.02 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.14 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.37 | +3.37 | +3.43 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.16 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.66 | +3.33 | +2.50 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.32 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.83 | +3.33 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.51 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.14 | +3.14 | +2.43 | 0.00 | +0.58 | +0.14 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.81 | +3.14 | +3.43 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.25 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 19.72 | +3.05 | +2.51 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.32 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 18.68 | +3.01 | +2.11 | 0.00 | +0.57 | +0.33 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.08 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.12 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.85 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.17 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.19 | +2.94 | +2.88 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 18.41 | +2.91 | +2.94 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.04 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.90 | +2.90 | +1.98 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.41 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.22 | +2.89 | +1.72 | 0.00 | +1.15 | +0.02 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.63 | +2.88 | +2.29 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.25 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 19.19 | +2.86 | +2.07 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.20 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.35 | +2.85 | +2.36 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.14 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +2.42 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.22 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 19.07 | +2.74 | +2.18 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.34 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 18.76 | +2.63 | +1.07 | 0.00 | +1.39 | +0.16 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.53 | +2.53 | +2.55 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.69 | +2.49 | +0.99 | 0.00 | +1.16 | +0.34 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.41 | +2.41 | +1.76 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.38 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.82 | +2.32 | +1.47 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.26 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.81 | +2.21 | +1.90 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.07 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 19.09 | +2.09 | +1.19 | 0.00 | +0.78 | +0.13 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.71 | +2.04 | +1.46 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.23 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 20.00 | +2.00 | +0.93 | 0.00 | +0.92 | +0.38 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.79 | +1.99 | +1.52 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.24 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.31 | +1.98 | +1.52 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.19 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.68 | +1.88 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.35 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.34 | +1.84 | +1.11 | 0.00 | +0.52 | +0.21 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.36 | +1.69 | +1.24 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.23 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.67 | +1.67 | +1.42 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.03 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 17.39 | +1.56 | +1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 17.54 | +1.54 | +1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 18.21 | +1.54 | +1.05 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.27 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.77 | +1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.84 | +0.43 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.66 | +1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.67 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.26 | +1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.67 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.23 | +1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.36 | +0.87 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.69 | +1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.79 | +0.30 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.66 | +0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.27 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.10 | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.64 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 2.47 | +0.80 | +0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.98 | +0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.57 | +0.20 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.74 | +0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.43 | +0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.48 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.15 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.41 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.39 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.05 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 16.72 | +0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.29 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.00 | +0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.26 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 17.11 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.36 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.31 | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.62 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.29 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.90 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.19 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.15 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.47 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.62 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
Seed 3 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-domain. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.