Median simulation · cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-domain

Simulation 5

South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years, seed 5: median simulation of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.08 in 2046; 75 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 5

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.08 (+2.08); From 16.00
Rank by index: 1; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 2 shocks; 4 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the evolution strategy (cma-es) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Build Financial Infrastructure 30 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 30 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 30		16.05 +0.053
2028	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 30 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 30	Breadbasket failure	15.98 −0.072
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 30 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 30 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 30	Middle East settlement	16.14 +0.156
2030	Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 30 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 30		16.34 +0.203
2031	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 32 Build Economic Output & Productivity 32 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 32 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 32 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 32		16.51 +0.164
2032	Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 32 Build Economic Output & Productivity 32 Buy Information Environment & Strategic Communication 32 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 32 Buy Internal Security & Order 32		16.65 +0.140
2033	Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 32 Build Digital & AI Competence 32 Buy Artificial Intelligence 32 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 32 Build Labour & Employment 32		16.77 +0.123
2034	Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 33 Build Advanced Education 33 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 33 Partner Digital & Services Trade 33		16.92 +0.149
2035	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33 Build Advanced Education 33 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 33 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 33 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 33		17.03 +0.108
2036	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33 Partner Global Value Chain Position 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 33 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 33		17.14 +0.115
2037	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33 Build Foundational Education 33 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33	Water-efficient food leap	17.28 +0.140
2038	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 33 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 33 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 33 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 33 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 33		17.43 +0.147
2039	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 35 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 35 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 35 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 35 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 35	Automated discovery step	17.73 +0.300
2040	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 35 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 35 Build Early Childhood Development 35 Buy Energy Infrastructure 35 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 35		18.01 +0.279
2041	Build Labour & Employment 36 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 36 Partner Space Technologies 36 Buy Resource Infrastructure 36 Partner Population Health 36		18.30 +0.294
2042	No actions	Middle East settlement	18.44 +0.143
2043	No actions	Core disaster	18.20 −0.247
2044	No actions		18.22 +0.021
2045	No actions		18.14 −0.074
2046	No actions		18.08 −0.061

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	4	5	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	5	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	19.76	+5.26	+4.78	−0.53	+0.88	+0.32
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.99	+4.99	+3.59	−0.14	+1.53	+0.15
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	16.64	+4.89	+4.30	−0.32	+0.77	+0.14
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	19.78	+4.28	+7.27	−0.23	+0.92	+0.07
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	18.76	+4.26	+3.84	−0.50	+0.54	+0.38
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	18.38	+4.18	+4.24	−0.37	+0.08	+0.23
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	19.92	+3.92	+2.90	−0.28	+1.08	+0.57
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	18.88	+3.88	+2.56	−0.13	+1.00	+0.45
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	19.74	+3.74	+4.87	−0.23	+0.68	+0.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	19.57	+3.57	+2.43	−0.52	+1.07	+0.58
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	19.48	+3.48	+2.48	−0.14	+1.00	+0.14
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	18.76	+3.43	+2.44	−0.13	+0.99	+0.13
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.25	+3.25	+2.77	−0.44	+0.51	+0.41
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	19.31	+2.98	+2.06	−0.36	+0.79	+0.48
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	18.65	+2.98	+2.71	−0.51	+0.54	+0.25
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	19.33	+2.83	+2.59	−0.47	+0.52	+0.19
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	19.27	+2.77	+3.06	−0.33	−0.34	+0.61
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	18.43	+2.76	+1.18	−0.15	+1.41	+0.31
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.75	+2.75	+2.75	−0.23	+0.67	+0.12
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	19.24	+2.74	+2.69	−0.47	+0.25	+0.26
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	19.58	+2.58	+1.91	−0.23	+0.66	+0.24
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	18.54	+2.54	+1.91	−0.82	+1.05	+0.39
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	18.79	+2.46	+0.92	−0.14	+1.67	+0.01
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	17.75	+2.42	+1.97	−0.46	+0.38	+0.52
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	18.09	+2.34	+2.31	−0.30	+0.14	+0.18
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.31	+2.31	+2.09	−0.50	+0.39	+0.52
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	18.93	+2.26	+2.33	−0.30	+0.16	+0.08
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	18.50	+2.17	+1.83	−0.47	+0.39	+0.42
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.65	+2.15	+1.47	−0.35	+0.79	+0.24
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	18.26	+2.01	+1.89	−0.47	+0.39	+0.21
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	19.24	+1.99	+1.30	−0.23	+0.66	+0.26
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	18.93	+1.93	+1.38	−0.22	+0.54	+0.23
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	17.64	+1.89	+1.57	−0.43	+0.50	+0.26
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.86	+1.86	+1.58	−0.48	+0.39	+0.37
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	17.97	+1.84	+1.14	−0.35	+0.84	+0.21
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	19.03	+1.83	0.00	−0.14	+1.52	+0.44
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.37	+1.77	+1.78	−0.81	+0.60	+0.19
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	17.77	+1.77	+1.22	−0.15	+0.52	+0.18
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	18.53	+1.73	+1.46	−0.49	+0.54	+0.21
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	18.39	+1.72	+1.34	−0.46	+0.50	+0.33
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	17.71	+1.71	+1.24	−0.62	+0.73	+0.36
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	17.44	+1.64	+1.53	−0.77	+0.60	+0.27
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	17.13	+1.63	+1.49	−0.44	+0.55	+0.03
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	18.91	+1.58	+1.41	−0.48	+0.40	+0.26
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	16.16	+1.49	+1.27	−0.69	+0.60	+0.31
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.42	+1.42	0.00	−0.48	+0.95	+0.95
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.33	+1.33	0.00	−0.34	+1.04	+0.64
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.81	+1.31	0.00	−0.34	+1.27	+0.38
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.67	+1.17	+1.44	−0.48	−0.16	+0.38
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	19.51	+1.11	0.00	−0.36	+0.79	+0.68
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	17.42	+1.09	+1.19	−0.29	−0.06	+0.25
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	17.24	+1.04	0.00	−0.73	+1.30	+0.47
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	17.18	+0.98	0.00	−0.13	+0.83	+0.27
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	16.79	+0.96	0.00	−0.57	+1.27	+0.26
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	2.56	+0.89	0.00	−0.02	+0.92	−0.01
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	18.88	+0.88	0.00	−0.56	+1.24	+0.20
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	17.82	+0.82	+1.05	−0.30	−0.04	+0.10
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	17.30	+0.80	0.00	−0.73	+1.06	+0.47
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	17.39	+0.72	0.00	−0.21	+0.45	+0.48
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	16.46	+0.71	0.00	−0.31	+0.84	+0.17
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	17.39	+0.68	0.00	−0.74	+1.06	+0.36
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	14.34	+0.67	0.00	−0.48	+0.72	+0.43
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	17.39	+0.59	0.00	−0.33	+0.57	+0.35
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	18.58	+0.58	0.00	−0.47	+0.74	+0.30
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	14.82	+0.57	0.00	−0.63	+0.60	+0.60
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.16	+0.56	0.00	−0.73	+0.91	+0.38
Air Power	National Security	16.75	17.30	+0.55	0.00	−0.59	+0.74	+0.40
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	15.85	+0.52	0.00	−0.54	+0.73	+0.33
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	18.00	+0.50	0.00	−0.76	+1.06	+0.21
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	16.82	+0.49	0.00	−0.58	+0.74	+0.33
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.95	+0.45	0.00	−0.58	+0.74	+0.29
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	16.45	+0.45	0.00	−0.56	+0.74	+0.28
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	16.40	+0.40	0.00	−0.56	+0.74	+0.23

Seed 5 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-domain. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.