Round 3 · simulation 3 · cmaes-c1.c1-kor-greedy

Round 2029

Round 3 of 20 in simulation 3 of South Korea, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index −0.045 to 16.05.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2029 (the end of 2028) and as it left it.

Capability index
16.05 (−0.045)
In: 16.09
Rank by index
6
In: 6
Domains at Tier 1
1
In: 2
Credits carried
562
In: 370
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology16.0815.92−0.1632 → 3
Strategic Infrastructure16.3216.24−0.0722
National Security14.4114.410.0003
Human Capital17.2817.61+0.3331
Information & Influence15.4915.52+0.0213 → 2
Governance & Integrity15.8415.73−0.1064 → 5
Financial Strength16.0715.89−0.1805
Production & Innovation16.6316.46−0.1711 → 2
Trade & Investment16.6816.61−0.0642

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2029: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 1,014, plus 370 carried in. Maintenance 670. Spent 152 on actions (build 91, partner 61). 562 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills30 credits for 2.02 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Lifelong Learning & Reskilling by 21 per cent
  • BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling30 credits for 1.68 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Alliances & Security Cooperation by 5 per cent
  • PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation30 credits for 2.43 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Trade Policy & Market Access by 3 per cent
  • PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access30 credits for 1.97 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Foundational Education by 1 per cent
  • BuildFoundational Education30 credits for 1.21 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 4 per cent
  • Shock: AI labour shock S08. −27.5 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 2 to 3; Information & Influence Tier 3 to 2; Governance & Integrity Tier 4 to 5; Production & Innovation Tier 1 to 2.

The groups that moved most in 2029, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Technical & Vocational Skills+1.35+1.440.00−0.090.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+1.10+1.290.00−0.190.00
Alliances & Security Cooperation+1.06+1.220.00−0.150.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.81+0.980.00−0.180.00
Digital & AI Competence+0.49+0.680.00−0.190.00
Digital & Services Trade−0.360.000.00−0.360.00