Simulation 3
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.14 in 2046; 85 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 4 (median simulation), 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.14 (+2.14)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.09 +0.051 | |
| 2029 |
| AI labour shock | 16.05 −0.045 |
| 2030 |
| 16.08 +0.036 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.07 −0.009 | |
| 2032 |
| Market access opening | 16.25 +0.184 |
| 2033 |
| 16.46 +0.201 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.67 +0.211 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.79 +0.121 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.86 +0.072 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.95 +0.095 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.05 +0.098 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.16 +0.104 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.31 +0.151 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.43 +0.120 | |
| 2042 |
| Clean power threshold | 17.63 +0.207 |
| 2043 |
| 17.85 +0.220 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 18.02 +0.165 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.10 +0.081 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.14 +0.043 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.97 | +5.47 | +5.52 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.48 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +5.14 | −0.05 | +0.54 | +0.37 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.72 | +4.72 | +4.54 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.47 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +7.20 | −0.07 | +0.74 | +0.11 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.48 | +4.48 | +3.87 | −0.04 | +0.54 | +0.11 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.77 | +4.44 | +3.89 | −0.05 | +0.54 | +0.06 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.90 | +4.40 | +4.30 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.34 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 16.11 | +4.36 | +3.04 | −0.10 | +1.08 | +0.33 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.44 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.07 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.97 | +3.97 | +4.36 | −0.17 | −0.08 | +0.31 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.26 | +3.93 | +3.43 | −0.16 | +0.23 | +0.44 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.79 | +3.79 | +3.41 | −0.04 | +0.31 | +0.12 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.99 | +3.66 | +3.05 | −0.17 | +0.48 | +0.30 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.89 | +3.56 | +2.50 | −0.05 | +1.09 | +0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.74 | +3.54 | +3.26 | −0.11 | +0.17 | +0.21 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.33 | −0.16 | +0.33 | +0.23 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.97 | +3.47 | +2.97 | −0.12 | +0.56 | +0.05 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 19.19 | +3.44 | +3.03 | −0.15 | +0.32 | +0.24 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.59 | +3.34 | +3.44 | −0.17 | −0.06 | +0.13 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.16 | +3.16 | +2.91 | −0.05 | +0.21 | +0.09 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.04 | +3.04 | +3.42 | −0.28 | −0.24 | +0.14 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.73 | −0.08 | +0.22 | +0.33 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.42 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.31 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 19.62 | +2.95 | +2.62 | −0.15 | +0.33 | +0.16 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.49 | +2.82 | +3.35 | −0.16 | −0.55 | +0.18 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.76 | +2.76 | +2.26 | −0.09 | +0.20 | +0.40 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.76 | +2.76 | +1.97 | −0.16 | +0.49 | +0.47 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.96 | +2.71 | +2.33 | −0.08 | +0.22 | +0.24 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.20 | +2.70 | +2.49 | −0.11 | −0.27 | +0.59 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.69 | +2.69 | +2.52 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.30 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.20 | +2.53 | +2.42 | −0.24 | +0.20 | +0.15 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.61 | +2.41 | +1.04 | −0.05 | +1.10 | +0.31 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.80 | +2.30 | +1.46 | −0.15 | +0.86 | +0.14 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 19.01 | +2.01 | +1.20 | −0.10 | +0.73 | +0.18 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.51 | +1.91 | +1.91 | −0.27 | +0.21 | +0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.90 | +1.90 | +1.51 | −0.16 | +0.24 | +0.30 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.32 | +1.82 | +1.30 | −0.16 | +0.49 | +0.19 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.15 | +1.82 | +1.53 | −0.16 | +0.24 | +0.21 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.57 | +1.77 | +1.54 | −0.25 | +0.20 | +0.28 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.07 | +1.74 | +1.12 | −0.11 | +0.56 | +0.17 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.44 | +1.64 | +1.52 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.35 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.39 | +1.64 | +1.39 | −0.09 | +0.19 | +0.15 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.48 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +1.34 | +0.12 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.76 | +1.26 | +1.45 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.04 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.17 | +1.17 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.86 | +0.46 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.46 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.57 | +0.62 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.56 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.81 | +0.35 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.04 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.34 | +0.86 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.00 | +1.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.56 | +0.55 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.54 | +0.87 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.54 | +0.36 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.36 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.74 | +0.25 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.89 | +0.69 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.55 | +0.18 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.49 | +0.69 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.56 | +0.23 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.59 | +0.59 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.57 | +0.20 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.79 | +0.54 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.19 | +0.55 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.25 | +0.50 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.56 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.10 | +0.39 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.21 | +0.41 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.89 | +0.39 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.21 | +0.41 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.03 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.21 | +0.21 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.65 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.19 | +0.22 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.93 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.20 | +0.15 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 16.43 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.21 | +0.25 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.71 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.22 | +0.24 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.37 | +0.04 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 | +0.22 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.76 | +0.01 | 0.00 | −0.19 | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.01 | +0.01 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.65 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.65 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.78 | −0.05 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 | +0.13 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.94 | −0.06 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.26 | −0.07 | 0.00 | −0.17 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.39 | −0.11 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 | +0.08 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.88 | −0.12 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
Seed 3 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.