C1 · cmaes-c1.c1-kor-greedy

South Korea, greedy, 20 years

5 simulations of 20 rounds from the 2026 position. South Korea decides by the greedy method; the shock and upside library, drawn at random each round.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–5 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2046, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 5 simulations under it.

Capability index: 17.94 (+1.93); From 16.00; 17.45 to 18.07
Rank by index: 2; From 6; 1 to 2
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2; 6 to 7
Tier rank: 2; From 7; 2 to 2

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	2026	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	16.00	17.45	17.94	18.07	higher
Rank by index	6	1	2	2	lower
Tier rank	7	2	2	2	lower
Domains at Tier 1	2	6	7	7	higher
Score sum	1165.8	1263.2	1300.0	1309.1	higher
Goal-weighted score	1165.8	1263.2	1300.0	1309.1	higher
Resilient score	1165.8	1289.7 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 58 per cent, buy took 18 per cent, partner took 24 per cent of the 2,759 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 5 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 5 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	40 per cent	13.7	−29.8
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	40 per cent	2.0	−13.5
AI labour shock S08	Shock	40 per cent	3.5	−21.9
Market access opening S12	Upside	40 per cent	5.0	+15.2
Water-efficient food leap S16	Upside	40 per cent	12.5	+15.1
Automated discovery step S17	Upside	40 per cent	16.5	+40.8
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	20 per cent	7.0	−13.4
Core disaster S07	Shock	20 per cent	17.0	−17.8
Middle East settlement S14	Upside	20 per cent	9.5	+15.4
Clean power threshold S15	Upside	20 per cent	16.0	+33.9
Chronic disease advance S19	Upside	20 per cent	6.0	+15.2

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	20.00 19.88 to 20.00	+4.50	7.23	91
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	19.77 18.96 to 20.00	+4.44	4.29	113
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	18.54 18.21 to 18.76	+4.04	4.05	79
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	18.99 18.09 to 20.00	+3.99	3.87	99
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	19.98 19.84 to 20.00	+3.98	6.48	91
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	18.42 18.13 to 19.56	+3.92	4.30	73
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	19.85 19.40 to 19.94	+3.85	4.32	61
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	19.79 19.56 to 20.00	+3.79	3.65	100
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	19.02 18.24 to 19.25	+3.69	3.83	67
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	19.88 19.10 to 19.92	+3.55	2.69	72
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	17.74 17.39 to 18.11	+3.54	3.71	77
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	18.39 17.69 to 19.30	+3.39	2.98	77
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	15.12 14.37 to 16.59	+3.37	3.65	79
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	19.83 17.96 to 19.95	+3.33	2.67	60
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.26 17.77 to 19.27	+3.26	3.43	73
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	18.99 18.12 to 19.11	+3.24	2.96	66
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	19.16 18.63 to 19.51	+3.16	2.88	66
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	20.00 19.91 to 20.00	+3.00	3.42	61
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	18.95 18.64 to 19.54	+2.95	2.38	67
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	18.94 18.57 to 19.03	+2.94	2.88	57
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	18.43 17.90 to 18.59	+2.76	2.91	59
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	19.04 18.53 to 19.75	+2.71	2.87	53
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.70 19.63 to 19.93	+2.70	2.52	61
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	19.19 18.43 to 19.71	+2.69	2.65	65
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	19.63 18.68 to 20.00	+2.63	2.16	51
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	19.85 19.56 to 19.98	+2.60	2.33	61
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	18.78 18.38 to 19.51	+2.53	2.96	54
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	18.21 17.61 to 18.62	+2.46	2.51	60
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	18.82 18.25 to 19.16	+2.32	2.56	91
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.31 18.56 to 19.83	+2.31	2.02	30
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.80 18.33 to 19.21	+2.30	2.43	60
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	16.76 16.02 to 17.03	+2.09	1.92	53
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	17.57 16.50 to 18.31	+1.77	1.71	39
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	18.97 18.65 to 19.39	+1.77	1.02	32
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.75 18.44 to 18.89	+1.75	1.80	36
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	18.05 17.90 to 18.08	+1.72	1.52	46
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	18.33 17.74 to 19.35	+1.66	1.90	46
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.22 18.08 to 18.50	+1.62	1.82	33
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	18.40 18.02 to 18.43	+1.60	1.48	33
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	18.88 18.42 to 19.09	+1.55	1.67	38
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.86 18.24 to 19.50	+1.36	1.98	45
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	16.76 15.54 to 16.99	+1.26	1.17	27
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.04 17.89 to 19.32	+1.04	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.02 18.51 to 19.12	+1.02	0.50	13
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	17.68 16.79 to 18.64	+1.01	0.67	20
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.00 16.60 to 18.08	+1.00	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	19.32 17.97 to 19.41	+0.92	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	17.11 16.68 to 17.73	+0.91	0.58	13
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	16.54 15.76 to 17.02	+0.87	0.25	7
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.28 15.35 to 17.59	+0.78	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.36 16.97 to 17.59	+0.76	0.59	13
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	16.87 16.75 to 17.50	+0.74	0.99	26
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	18.73 18.64 to 19.17	+0.73	0.69	20
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	17.19 16.97 to 17.90	+0.69	0.57	13
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	16.89 15.53 to 17.04	+0.69	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	17.28 17.11 to 18.00	+0.57	0.55	13
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	14.68 14.28 to 14.86	+0.43	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	17.22 16.39 to 17.47	+0.42	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	16.16 14.92 to 16.33	+0.41	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	16.65 15.98 to 17.28	+0.32	0.54	14
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	17.71 17.31 to 17.89	+0.21	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	16.37 15.61 to 16.51	+0.04	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	16.75	16.76 15.83 to 17.06	+0.01	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	16.01 15.03 to 16.35	+0.01	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	13.65 12.67 to 14.08	−0.02	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	1.65 1.45 to 2.27	−0.02	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	15.78 14.85 to 16.46	−0.05	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	15.94 14.24 to 16.23	−0.06	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	15.26 13.56 to 15.57	−0.07	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	16.57 16.05 to 17.01	−0.10	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.39 15.45 to 16.67	−0.11	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	15.88 14.03 to 16.15	−0.12	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	16.73 16.37 to 18.35	−0.27	0.24	7

Settings and versions

Experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-greedy. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: South Korea (KOR)
Position: The 2026 ratings of the National Capability Index
Method: Greedy. Each round, the actions with the most value per credit: a level's own worth plus its long-run effect downstream through the graph, less the maintenance it will need, counting only what arrives before the horizon.
Scenario: The shock and upside library, drawn at random each round
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 20 rounds, 2026 to 2046
Simulations: 5 seeds, 1 to 5. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 1,014.1 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: CMA-ES C1, encoding comparison (cmaes-c1)
Runtime: 0.6 seconds in all; 1195 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.