Round 4 · simulation 4 · cmaes-c1.c1-kor-greedy

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 4 of South Korea, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock and Market access opening, and the index +0.162 to 16.34.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
16.34 (+0.162)
In: 16.18
Rank by index
5
In: 6
Domains at Tier 1
4
In: 2
Credits carried
710
In: 534
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology16.0816.03−0.0552 → 3
Strategic Infrastructure16.3216.37+0.0582
National Security14.4114.410.0003
Human Capital17.7418.24+0.4971
Information & Influence15.7016.46+0.7642 → 1
Governance & Integrity15.8415.88+0.0424 → 3
Financial Strength16.0716.09+0.0115 → 4
Production & Innovation16.6316.61−0.0171
Trade & Investment16.8216.97+0.1532 → 1

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 1,014, plus 534 carried in. Maintenance 686. Spent 152 on actions (build 30, buy 30, partner 91). 710 carried over.

  • PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance30 credits for 0.91 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks by 1 per cent
  • PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks30 credits for 1.74 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Alliances & Security Cooperation by 0 per cent
  • PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation30 credits for 1.82 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 0 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance30 credits for 1.98 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Foundational Education by 2 per cent
  • BuildFoundational Education30 credits for 1.08 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 1 per cent
  • Shock: AI labour shock S08. −16.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
  • Upside event: Market access opening S12. +15.3 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 2 to 3; Information & Influence Tier 2 to 1; Governance & Integrity Tier 4 to 3; Financial Strength Tier 5 to 4; Trade & Investment Tier 2 to 1.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Alliances & Security Cooperation+2.08+2.130.00−0.050.00
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.93+1.980.00−0.050.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+1.49+1.440.00+0.110.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+1.26+1.290.00−0.020.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+1.04+0.980.00+0.060.00
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks+0.82+0.870.00−0.050.00