Simulation 4
South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 4: median simulation of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.94 in 2046; 74 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.94 (+1.93)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.09 +0.051 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.18 +0.089 | |
| 2030 |
| AI labour shockMarket access opening | 16.34 +0.162 |
| 2031 |
| 16.45 +0.111 | |
| 2032 |
| Chronic disease advance | 16.63 +0.180 |
| 2033 |
| 16.81 +0.175 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.95 +0.142 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.08 +0.129 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.19 +0.118 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.30 +0.104 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.43 +0.137 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.56 +0.122 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.69 +0.134 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.81 +0.123 | |
| 2042 | No actions | 17.83 +0.019 | |
| 2043 | No actions | 17.82 −0.018 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 17.79 −0.026 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 17.77 −0.022 | |
| 2046 | No actions | Automated discovery step | 17.94 +0.168 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +5.10 | −0.07 | +0.60 | +0.35 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +4.95 | −0.07 | +0.60 | +0.24 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +7.20 | −0.12 | +0.83 | +0.26 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.44 | −0.12 | +0.42 | +0.07 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +3.76 | −0.07 | +0.47 | +0.22 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.23 | +3.90 | +3.50 | −0.25 | +0.28 | +0.38 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.84 | +3.84 | +4.26 | −0.27 | +0.09 | +0.28 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.24 | +3.74 | +3.56 | −0.27 | +0.09 | +0.36 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.58 | +3.58 | +2.92 | −0.08 | +0.56 | +0.18 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.01 | +3.51 | +3.40 | −0.25 | +0.09 | +0.27 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.47 | +3.47 | +2.26 | −0.14 | +0.76 | +0.59 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.93 | +3.43 | +2.93 | −0.19 | +0.47 | +0.22 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 15.12 | +3.37 | +2.93 | −0.15 | +0.47 | +0.12 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.54 | +3.34 | +2.99 | −0.17 | +0.23 | +0.30 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.26 | +3.26 | +3.07 | −0.22 | +0.06 | +0.36 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.99 | +3.24 | +2.91 | −0.23 | +0.33 | +0.23 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.22 | +3.22 | +2.45 | −0.07 | +0.60 | +0.24 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.39 | +3.14 | +3.03 | −0.25 | +0.21 | +0.16 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.01 | +3.01 | +2.87 | −0.43 | +0.29 | +0.28 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.52 | −0.12 | +0.41 | +0.39 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.42 | −0.12 | +0.41 | +0.32 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.66 | +2.99 | +3.10 | −0.25 | −0.18 | +0.33 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.87 | +2.87 | +1.97 | −0.26 | +0.53 | +0.63 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.35 | +2.85 | +2.61 | −0.24 | +0.33 | +0.15 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.58 | +2.83 | +2.61 | −0.15 | +0.23 | +0.14 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +2.29 | −0.12 | +0.57 | +0.20 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.19 | +2.69 | +2.38 | −0.24 | +0.33 | +0.21 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.76 | +2.43 | +1.71 | −0.24 | +0.53 | +0.42 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.65 | +2.32 | +1.16 | −0.07 | +1.21 | +0.02 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.82 | +2.32 | +1.77 | −0.16 | +0.25 | +0.46 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.04 | +2.04 | +1.17 | −0.12 | +0.56 | +0.42 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.48 | +1.88 | +1.81 | −0.41 | +0.35 | +0.13 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.75 | +1.75 | +1.38 | −0.24 | +0.28 | +0.33 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.00 | +1.67 | +1.05 | −0.18 | +0.47 | +0.33 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.33 | +1.66 | +1.32 | −0.23 | +0.34 | +0.23 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.42 | +1.62 | +1.49 | −0.39 | +0.35 | +0.16 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.40 | +1.60 | +1.42 | −0.24 | +0.10 | +0.33 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.88 | +1.55 | +1.38 | −0.24 | +0.28 | +0.13 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.08 | +1.41 | +1.20 | −0.34 | +0.34 | +0.21 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.57 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +1.00 | +0.44 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.85 | +1.35 | +1.44 | −0.22 | +0.09 | +0.04 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.25 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.55 | +0.94 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.09 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.61 | +0.65 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.68 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.84 | +0.28 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.33 | +0.93 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.48 | +0.64 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.05 | +0.85 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.84 | +0.37 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.49 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.60 | +0.28 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.28 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.72 | +0.23 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.95 | +0.75 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.60 | +0.21 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.87 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.72 | +0.18 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.71 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.82 | +0.17 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.91 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.34 | +0.63 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.44 | +0.64 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.47 | +0.34 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.09 | +0.59 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.56 | +0.39 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.07 | +0.57 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.54 | +0.26 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.49 | +0.49 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.34 | +0.39 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.14 | +0.43 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.56 | +0.23 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.16 | +0.41 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.47 | +0.09 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.07 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.24 | +0.30 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.87 | +0.37 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.56 | +0.18 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.96 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.35 | +0.37 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.35 | +0.35 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.24 | +0.26 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.65 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.24 | +0.22 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 17.01 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.21 | +0.35 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.93 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.21 | +0.30 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 16.08 | +0.25 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.21 | +0.32 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.86 | +0.19 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.21 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.18 | +0.18 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.21 | +0.26 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.14 | +0.14 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.21 | +0.21 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.43 | +0.10 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.21 | +0.16 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.39 | +0.06 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.21 | +0.14 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.03 | +0.03 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.21 | +0.10 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.48 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.21 | +0.06 |
Seed 4 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-greedy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.