Round 3 · simulation 2 · cmaes-dev.dev-est-mcts-index

Round 2029

Round 3 of 4 in simulation 2 of Estonia, tree search, 4 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.062 to 11.37.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2029 (the end of 2028) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.37 (+0.062)
In: 11.31
Rank by index
34
In: 34
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
193
In: 126
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.717.09+0.3767 → 6
Strategic Infrastructure10.4610.460.0005
National Security7.417.410.0006
Human Capital14.2814.280.0003
Information & Influence10.2910.49+0.2076
Governance & Integrity15.2515.25−0.0024
Financial Strength12.6412.62−0.0189
Production & Innovation12.5912.590.0005
Trade & Investment12.1312.12−0.0108

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2029: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 386, plus 126 carried in. Maintenance 259. Spent 59 on actions (build 12, buy 36, partner 12). 193 carried over.

  • BuildSemiconductors & Advanced Computing12 credits for 0.54 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 1 per cent
  • PartnerSpace Technologies12 credits for 0.95 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuySensing, Timing & Navigation12 credits for 1.27 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyArtificial Intelligence12 credits for 1.11 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance12 credits for 1.21 levelsmcts_fill

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 7 to 6.

The groups that moved most in 2029, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Sensing, Timing & Navigation+1.32+1.270.000.00+0.05
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.23+1.210.000.00+0.02
Artificial Intelligence+1.20+1.110.000.00+0.09
Space Technologies+0.97+0.970.000.000.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+0.18+0.180.000.000.00
Robotics & Autonomous Systems+0.100.000.000.00+0.10