A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-gbr-random

Simulation 27

United Kingdom, random, 20 years, seed 27: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 18.14 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 0 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 27

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 54 (median simulation), 96 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.14 (+1.68); From 16.45
Rank by index: 1; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 6; From 2
Events: 0 shocks; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Partner Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 10 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 10 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 10 Buy Intelligence & Assessment 48		16.46 +0.011
2028	Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 10 Buy Digital & AI Competence 10 Buy Maritime Power 10 Build Space Technologies 48 Buy Space Operations 19		16.50 +0.031
2029	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 10 Partner Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 19 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 19 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 10 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 19		16.53 +0.035
2030	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 19 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 10 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 48 Buy Transport Infrastructure 10		16.59 +0.053
2031	Buy Maritime Power 48 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 48 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 48 Partner Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 19 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 19		16.64 +0.060
2032	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 48 Build Labour & Employment 48 Buy Maritime Power 19 Buy Intelligence & Assessment 48 Build Digital & Services Trade 48		16.72 +0.076
2033	Partner Structural Transformation & Complexity 10 Partner Health System Capability 19 Build Foundational Education 48 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Buy Air Power 10		16.80 +0.076
2034	Buy Resource Infrastructure 48 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 10 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10 Buy Land Power 19		16.85 +0.058
2035	Build Population Health 19 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 48 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 48	Water-efficient food leap	16.93 +0.076
2036	Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 48 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 48 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 48 Buy Artificial Intelligence 10 Partner Labour & Employment 10		17.02 +0.089
2037	Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 20 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 50 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 20 Buy Structural Transformation & Complexity 20 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 50		17.13 +0.108
2038	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 20 Partner Foundational Education 51 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 20 Buy Economic Output & Productivity 20 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 10		17.23 +0.103
2039	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 51 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 20 Buy Space Technologies 20 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 10 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 51		17.30 +0.067
2040	Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 21 Build Land Power 21 Buy Structural Transformation & Complexity 21 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 21 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 10		17.36 +0.060
2041	Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 51 Partner Diaspora & Global Communities 51 Build Maritime Power 10 Partner Air Power 20 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 20	Market access opening	17.51 +0.149
2042	Partner Space Operations 20 Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 20 Partner Global Value Chain Position 51 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 51 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 51		17.68 +0.175
2043	Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 53 Partner Quantum Technologies 53 Build Energy Technologies 21 Build Land Power 11 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 53		17.84 +0.157
2044	Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 53 Partner Technical & Vocational Skills 53 Buy Quantum Technologies 11 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 11 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 21		17.91 +0.067
2045	Partner Quantum Technologies 21 Partner Advanced Education 21 Partner Energy Technologies 51 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 21 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 10	Clean power threshold	18.02 +0.117
2046	Partner Early Childhood Development 21 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 10 Partner Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 51 Buy Space Technologies 21 Partner Resource Infrastructure 21		18.14 +0.115

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.215	−88.7	−4.00
No shocks	+0.742	+52.5	+1.65
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	−0.05
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.015	−1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.018	−1.4	−0.05
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.024	−1.6	−0.10
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.351	+24.8	+0.84
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.302	+21.3	+0.79
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.257	+18.0	+0.50

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	19.73	+3.98	+3.42	+0.45	+0.11
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	18.34	+3.67	+3.08	+0.52	+0.07
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	17.77	+3.52	+2.87	+0.57	+0.08
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	19.49	+3.49	+2.67	+0.52	+0.31
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	18.45	+3.45	+2.39	+0.90	+0.15
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	17.33	+3.33	+3.26	0.00	+0.07
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	17.13	+3.13	+2.72	+0.35	+0.06
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	18.72	+3.12	+2.52	+0.48	+0.12
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.10	+3.10	+2.47	+0.52	+0.12
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	17.28	+3.03	+2.06	+0.64	+0.32
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+2.28	+0.84	+0.21
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+3.96	+0.84	+0.12
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	19.90	+2.90	+2.81	0.00	+0.09
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	20.00	+2.75	+1.88	+0.84	+0.10
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	19.32	+2.65	+2.06	+0.52	+0.07
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	20.00	+2.50	+2.06	+0.26	+0.24
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	20.00	+2.50	+1.74	+0.84	+0.06
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	19.22	+2.47	+1.84	+0.35	+0.27
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	17.95	+2.45	+1.88	+0.52	+0.06
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	19.34	+2.34	+2.12	0.00	+0.23
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	15.81	+2.31	+2.05	+0.26	0.00
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	18.61	+2.21	+1.69	+0.32	+0.20
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	19.84	+2.17	+1.11	+1.03	+0.03
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	17.46	+2.13	+1.25	+0.52	+0.36
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	20.00	+2.00	+3.26	+0.26	+0.09
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	18.35	+1.95	+1.21	+0.52	+0.22
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	18.84	+1.84	+0.67	+1.03	+0.14
Land Power	National Security	16.50	18.31	+1.81	+1.31	0.00	+0.50
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	18.99	+1.74	+1.16	+0.32	+0.26
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	16.39	+1.72	+1.32	0.00	+0.40
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	20.00	+1.67	+1.19	+0.45	+0.12
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	18.62	+1.62	+1.05	+0.52	+0.05
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	19.61	+1.61	+1.31	+0.26	+0.04
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	19.60	+1.60	+1.46	0.00	+0.14
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	19.31	+1.56	+1.16	+0.32	+0.08
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	17.55	+1.55	+0.86	+0.52	+0.17
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	16.19	+1.52	+0.98	+0.45	+0.08
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	17.45	+1.45	+0.34	+0.90	+0.20
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	17.01	+1.41	+0.74	+0.52	+0.15
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	18.91	+1.41	+0.61	+0.52	+0.29
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	17.40	+1.40	+0.84	+0.45	+0.11
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	16.58	+1.38	+0.69	+0.57	+0.11
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	18.55	+1.35	+0.77	+0.35	+0.23
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	17.60	+1.27	+0.67	+0.45	+0.15
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	16.43	+1.18	+0.39	+0.64	+0.14
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	18.11	+1.11	+0.38	+0.45	+0.28
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.55	+1.05	+0.35	+0.52	+0.19
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	18.37	+1.04	+0.51	+0.35	+0.18
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	17.17	+1.04	0.00	+0.97	+0.07
Air Power	National Security	17.00	18.00	+1.00	+0.80	0.00	+0.21
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.57	+0.97	+0.58	+0.35	+0.04
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	16.95	+0.95	+0.23	+0.45	+0.27
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	17.43	+0.93	+0.33	+0.45	+0.15
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	17.98	+0.89	0.00	+0.52	+0.37
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	17.86	+0.86	+0.24	+0.52	+0.11
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	16.86	+0.86	0.00	+0.70	+0.16
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	16.52	+0.85	0.00	+0.52	+0.34
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	17.09	+0.84	+0.25	+0.52	+0.07
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	17.40	+0.83	+0.35	+0.35	+0.13
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	15.47	+0.80	+0.52	0.00	+0.28
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	18.11	+0.78	+0.69	0.00	+0.09
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	16.67	+0.67	0.00	+0.52	+0.16
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	18.23	+0.63	0.00	+0.41	+0.22
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	16.93	+0.60	0.00	+0.52	+0.08
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	18.81	+0.56	0.00	+0.52	+0.05
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	16.50	+0.50	0.00	+0.35	+0.15
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	17.90	+0.50	0.00	+0.48	+0.02
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	14.46	+0.46	0.00	+0.35	+0.11
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	17.89	+0.39	0.00	+0.26	+0.13
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	18.06	+0.39	0.00	+0.32	+0.07
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	18.77	+0.37	0.00	+0.26	+0.11
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	18.04	+0.37	0.00	+0.32	+0.05
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	16.64	−0.03	0.00	0.00	−0.03

Seed 27 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.