A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-gbr-random

Simulation 96

United Kingdom, random, 20 years, seed 96: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 16.54 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 96

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 54 (median simulation), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 16.54 (+0.08); From 16.45
Rank by index: 3; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 2
Events: 3 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 10 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 19 Partner Financial Infrastructure 19 Partner Resource Infrastructure 19 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 19		16.48 +0.023
2028	Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 19 Partner Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 48 Buy Financial Regulation & Integrity 10 Buy Quantum Technologies 19 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 48		16.56 +0.080
2029	Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 19 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 19 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10 Build Population Health 19	Breadbasket failure	16.43 −0.122
2030	Build Energy Technologies 19 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 19 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 48		16.49 +0.055
2031	Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 9 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 19 Partner Biotechnology & Health Technologies 47 Build Energy Infrastructure 19 Buy Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 9		16.55 +0.057
2032	Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 19 Partner Sensing, Timing & Navigation 47 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 47 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 9		16.60 +0.055
2033	Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 19 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 47 Build Digital & AI Competence 47 Buy Information Environment & Strategic Communication 47 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 47		16.68 +0.084
2034	Partner Space Technologies 9 Build Financial Infrastructure 47 Partner Digital & AI Competence 19 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 47		16.76 +0.073
2035	Build Population Health 47 Build Intelligence & Assessment 47 Partner Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 19 Partner Biotechnology & Health Technologies 47 Partner Labour & Employment 19		16.82 +0.062
2036	Buy Space Operations 47 Partner Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 9 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9 Buy Advanced Education 47 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 19	Regional war spillover	16.48 −0.343
2037	Partner Foundational Education 47 Buy Artificial Intelligence 47 Build Advanced Manufacturing 47 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 9 Partner Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9		16.55 +0.069
2038	Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 45 Buy Land Power 45 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 18 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 18 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 9		16.60 +0.056
2039	Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 45 Partner Artificial Intelligence 18 Partner Quantum Technologies 9 Build Intelligence & Assessment 45 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 18		16.65 +0.052
2040	Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 18 Partner Financial Stability & Crisis Management 45 Build Advanced Manufacturing 18 Build Transport Infrastructure 45 Partner Land Power 9		16.70 +0.043
2041	Build Space Operations 18 Partner Resource Infrastructure 18 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 18 Build Economic Leverage & Dependence 45 Build Social Infrastructure 18		16.75 +0.052
2042	Buy Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 18 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 9 Partner Financial Infrastructure 18 Partner Advanced Education 45 Partner Internal Security & Order 18	Trade bloc rupture	16.66 −0.093
2043	Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 45 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 18 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 9 Buy Air Power 9 Partner Robotics & Autonomous Systems 18		16.55 −0.110
2044	Build Quantum Technologies 39 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 39 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 16 Buy Export Capability & Sophistication 39 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 39		16.46 −0.082
2045	Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 39 Buy Structural Transformation & Complexity 8 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 8 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 39 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16		16.51 +0.046
2046	Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 9 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 44 Build Economic Leverage & Dependence 9 Build Early Childhood Development 9 Partner Health System Capability 18		16.54 +0.029

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.215	−88.7	−4.00
No shocks	+0.742	+52.5	+1.65
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	−0.05
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.015	−1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.018	−1.4	−0.05
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.024	−1.6	−0.10
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.351	+24.8	+0.84
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.302	+21.3	+0.79
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.257	+18.0	+0.50

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+5.16	−1.14	+0.14
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	18.56	+3.56	+3.92	−0.38	+0.02
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	19.93	+3.43	+3.82	−0.39	+0.07
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	18.28	+2.68	+3.30	−0.81	+0.19
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	19.35	+2.02	+2.65	−0.82	+0.19
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	18.00	+2.00	+2.61	−0.50	−0.11
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	18.82	+1.82	+2.21	−0.42	+0.03
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	19.25	+1.75	+2.81	−0.93	−0.13
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	18.87	+1.54	+2.52	−0.80	−0.19
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	16.08	+1.41	+2.18	−0.85	+0.07
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	19.34	+1.34	+2.15	−0.90	+0.09
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.81	+1.31	+2.13	−0.82	−0.01
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	17.44	+1.19	+1.73	−0.53	−0.02
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	16.92	+1.17	+1.68	−0.42	−0.09
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	19.40	+1.15	+1.92	−0.78	+0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	15.79	+1.12	+1.48	−0.43	+0.07
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	18.29	+1.09	+1.86	−0.79	+0.02
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	19.06	+1.06	+1.75	−0.76	+0.07
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	17.65	+0.90	+1.73	−0.79	−0.04
Land Power	National Security	16.50	17.35	+0.85	+1.73	−0.82	−0.06
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	18.29	+0.79	+1.71	−1.08	+0.16
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	18.78	+0.78	+1.75	−0.89	−0.09
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	18.36	+0.76	+2.02	−1.26	−0.01
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	16.71	+0.71	+1.33	−0.79	+0.16
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	18.26	+0.51	+1.63	−1.12	0.00
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	18.00	+0.33	+1.12	−0.78	−0.01
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	17.95	+0.28	+1.36	−1.11	+0.03
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	17.24	+0.24	+1.16	−0.86	−0.05
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	18.50	+0.17	+0.49	−0.40	+0.09
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	15.48	+0.15	+2.73	−2.43	−0.15
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	16.15	+0.15	+1.55	−1.24	−0.16
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	17.39	+0.14	+1.95	−1.77	−0.04
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	16.70	+0.10	+0.87	−0.76	−0.01
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	14.32	+0.07	+1.40	−1.29	−0.04
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	16.03	+0.03	+0.58	−0.65	+0.09
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	15.35	−0.15	+0.39	−0.57	+0.03
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	15.73	−0.27	+0.08	−0.52	+0.17
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	16.02	−0.31	+0.21	−0.42	−0.10
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	14.69	−0.31	+0.79	−1.13	+0.03
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	13.66	−0.34	+0.38	−0.82	+0.10
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	15.29	−0.38	+1.69	−1.93	−0.15
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	16.58	−0.42	+0.41	−0.80	−0.03
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	15.97	−0.43	+0.68	−1.09	−0.02
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	15.17	−0.43	+0.68	−1.06	−0.04
Air Power	National Security	17.00	16.57	−0.43	+0.30	−0.80	+0.07
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	16.60	−0.49	+0.58	−0.80	−0.27
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	16.48	−0.52	+0.75	−1.27	−0.01
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	16.12	−0.55	0.00	−0.56	+0.01
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	17.84	−0.56	+0.25	−0.88	+0.07
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	15.75	−0.58	0.00	−0.56	−0.02
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	15.75	−0.65	+0.25	−0.79	−0.11
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	14.58	−0.67	+0.85	−1.65	+0.13
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	13.52	−0.73	+0.35	−0.98	−0.10
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	15.34	−0.79	+0.64	−1.37	−0.06
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	13.87	−0.80	+0.40	−1.12	−0.08
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	15.13	−0.87	0.00	−1.10	+0.23
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	15.80	−0.87	0.00	−0.81	−0.06
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	15.68	−0.89	+0.31	−1.25	+0.05
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	12.58	−0.92	0.00	−0.93	+0.02
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	16.01	−0.99	+1.08	−2.04	−0.03
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	16.38	−1.02	0.00	−1.10	+0.08
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	12.96	−1.04	0.00	−0.85	−0.19
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	14.13	−1.07	0.00	−0.97	−0.10
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	16.38	−1.12	+0.41	−1.55	+0.02
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	15.86	−1.14	0.00	−1.09	−0.06
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	16.33	−1.17	0.00	−1.30	+0.13
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	15.76	−1.24	0.00	−1.27	+0.02
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	13.42	−1.25	0.00	−1.32	+0.07
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	16.41	−1.26	+0.54	−1.75	−0.05
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	12.73	−1.27	0.00	−1.33	+0.06
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	15.71	−1.29	0.00	−1.31	+0.01
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	15.42	−1.83	0.00	−1.72	−0.11
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	14.08	−1.92	0.00	−1.92	+0.01

Seed 96 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.