Simulation 54
United Kingdom, random, 20 years, seed 54: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.39 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 54
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 96 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.39 (+0.93)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.48 +0.027 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.52 +0.044 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.58 +0.054 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.65 +0.068 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.71 +0.067 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.80 +0.090 | |
| 2033 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.66 −0.144 |
| 2034 |
| 16.70 +0.039 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.75 +0.051 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.80 +0.052 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.87 +0.064 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.92 +0.053 | |
| 2039 |
| 16.97 +0.049 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.04 +0.071 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.11 +0.070 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.18 +0.076 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.26 +0.076 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.30 +0.038 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.35 +0.052 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.39 +0.035 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.215 | −88.7 | −4.00 |
| No shocks | +0.742 | +52.5 | +1.65 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | −0.05 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | −0.05 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.024 | −1.6 | −0.10 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.351 | +24.8 | +0.84 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.302 | +21.3 | +0.79 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.257 | +18.0 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +4.66 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.23 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.17 | +4.17 | +4.24 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.06 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 18.62 | +3.62 | +3.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.61 | +3.61 | +3.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 19.25 | +3.58 | +3.61 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.13 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 17.58 | +2.91 | +3.14 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 19.12 | +2.62 | +2.87 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.05 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.60 | +2.60 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −0.14 | 0.00 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 18.48 | +2.48 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.15 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 16.60 | +2.35 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.11 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.87 | +2.27 | +2.53 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.01 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 19.91 | +2.24 | +2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 18.34 | +2.01 | +1.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.83 | +1.70 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.02 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.66 | +1.66 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 16.85 | +1.60 | +1.63 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.10 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 19.87 | +1.47 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 19.44 | +1.44 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.40 | +1.40 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.06 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 19.61 | +1.36 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.21 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.82 | +1.32 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 18.55 | +1.30 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.21 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 18.92 | +1.17 | +1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 18.13 | +1.13 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.02 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 17.41 | +1.08 | +1.23 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 18.39 | +1.06 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.26 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 17.73 | +0.98 | +1.05 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.07 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 17.96 | +0.96 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.02 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 16.01 | +0.81 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 17.76 | +0.76 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.19 | +0.69 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.03 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.89 | +0.64 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.13 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 18.95 | +0.62 | +0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 17.79 | +0.59 | +0.57 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.15 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 16.99 | +0.59 | +0.77 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 14.58 | +0.58 | +0.86 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 14.56 | +0.56 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 15.18 | +0.51 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.18 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 18.07 | +0.47 | +0.54 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.06 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.47 | +0.47 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.05 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.44 | +0.44 | +0.60 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.12 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 14.43 | +0.43 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 16.01 | +0.41 | +0.47 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.07 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.89 | +0.39 | +0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 16.62 | +0.37 | +0.51 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 17.54 | +0.29 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 17.60 | +0.27 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 16.83 | +0.26 | +0.35 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 17.92 | +0.25 | +0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 14.84 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.84 | +0.17 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 16.56 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 17.79 | +0.12 | +0.24 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.09 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 15.67 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.33 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 16.05 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.19 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 17.55 | +0.05 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 17.43 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 15.78 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.01 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.46 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.10 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 17.44 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.08 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.90 | −0.10 | +0.43 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 16.57 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.04 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 16.88 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 15.87 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | 0.00 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 16.91 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.08 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.28 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.04 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 14.40 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.03 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 13.21 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | 0.00 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.63 | −0.37 | +0.11 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.03 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.61 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.16 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.07 |
Seed 54 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.