Round 1 · simulation 10 · cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal-10y

Round 2027

Round 1 of 10 in simulation 10 of Kenya, greedy, 10 years: 5 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −1.007 to 6.17.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.

Capability index
6.17 (−1.007)
In: 7.18
Rank by index
94
In: 79
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
2
In: 0
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology2.902.45−0.44612 → 11
Strategic Infrastructure7.886.55−1.3337 → 8
National Security4.604.05−0.5479
Human Capital7.686.79−0.88912 → 13
Information & Influence8.217.08−1.1299 → 10
Governance & Integrity8.898.16−0.72914 → 16
Financial Strength8.577.07−1.49917 → 22
Production & Innovation7.576.54−1.02614 → 17
Trade & Investment8.306.83−1.46512 → 13

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2027: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 143. Maintenance 110. Spent 32 on actions (build 7, buy 24). 2 carried over.

  • BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies7 credits for 1.06 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Technical & Vocational Skills by 1 per cent
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.89 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Artificial Intelligence by 6 per cent
  • BuyArtificial Intelligence7 credits for 0.98 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 1 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance7 credits for 0.91 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Technology Adoption & Diffusion by 1 per cent
  • BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion3 credits for 0.37 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by 2 per cent
  • Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −74.5 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 12 to 11; Strategic Infrastructure Tier 7 to 8; Human Capital Tier 12 to 13; Information & Influence Tier 9 to 10; Governance & Integrity Tier 14 to 16; Financial Strength Tier 17 to 22; Production & Innovation Tier 14 to 17; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.

The groups that moved most in 2027, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Trade Facilitation & Logistics−2.530.000.00−2.530.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance−2.250.000.00−2.250.00
Monetary & Currency Capability−2.210.000.00−2.210.00
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks−2.130.000.00−2.130.00
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure−2.070.000.00−2.070.00
Energy Infrastructure−2.060.000.00−2.060.00