Simulation 10
Kenya, greedy, 10 years, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 5.97 in 2036; 47 actions over 10 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 10
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 80 (median simulation), 73 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2036.
- Capability index
- 5.97 (−1.20)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 96
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Breadbasket failure | 6.17 −1.007 |
| 2028 |
| 6.19 +0.024 | |
| 2029 |
| 6.21 +0.017 | |
| 2030 |
| Hybrid coercion | 6.00 −0.217 |
| 2031 |
| 6.03 +0.032 | |
| 2032 |
| 6.07 +0.039 | |
| 2033 |
| 6.11 +0.041 | |
| 2034 |
| 6.15 +0.042 | |
| 2035 |
| AI labour shock | 6.08 −0.073 |
| 2036 |
| 5.97 −0.103 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.456 | −34.1 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.738 | +52.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.013 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.604 | +42.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.434 | +30.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.283 | +20.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2036 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 7.67 | +3.67 | +5.07 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.03 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 8.34 | +3.01 | +3.92 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.52 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 3.99 | +2.99 | +4.24 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.04 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 9.25 | +2.25 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 5.84 | +1.34 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −1.88 | −0.16 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 10.20 | +1.20 | +3.46 | 0.00 | −2.06 | −0.19 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 8.46 | +0.96 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.21 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 10.17 | +0.42 | +2.39 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.19 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 2.29 | −0.14 | +0.99 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 5.94 | −0.39 | +1.71 | 0.00 | −1.85 | −0.24 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 7.04 | −0.63 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.14 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 8.73 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.05 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 8.05 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.04 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 2.27 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.08 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.98 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.09 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 9.92 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.07 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 4.11 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.06 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.91 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.03 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 3.55 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.26 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 6.21 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.19 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 0.12 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.04 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 3.62 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.13 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 7.61 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.23 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 0.19 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.04 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 5.84 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 5.16 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.19 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 0.42 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.09 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 1.14 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.16 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 6.47 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.09 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 7.12 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.30 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 6.78 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.28 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 1.11 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.19 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 6.01 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.28 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 6.26 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.13 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 5.56 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.06 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.70 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.19 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 7.96 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.05 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 2.02 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.08 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 7.76 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.10 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 6.50 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.09 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 4.48 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.06 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 4.93 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.04 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 6.41 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.08 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 4.37 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 7.36 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.16 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 5.85 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.14 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 7.54 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.27 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 7.79 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 1.87 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.08 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 5.89 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 5.20 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.31 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 4.87 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | +0.04 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 2.85 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.29 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 9.18 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.40 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 5.75 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.12 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 8.43 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.12 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 5.14 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.18 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 5.84 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.40 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 7.89 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.13 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 6.17 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.45 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 4.82 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.14 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 6.66 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.22 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 6.40 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.46 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 7.21 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.08 | −0.21 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 6.43 | −2.32 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −2.81 | −0.26 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 5.33 | −2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | +0.01 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 7.33 | −2.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.48 | −0.20 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 4.25 | −2.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.52 | −0.23 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 8.23 | −2.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.73 | −0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 5.25 | −3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.48 | −0.52 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 4.23 | −3.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.84 | −0.18 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 6.21 | −3.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.04 | −0.25 |
Seed 10 of experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal-10y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.