Round 2030
Round 4 of 10 in simulation 10 of Kenya, greedy, 10 years: 5 actions, Hybrid coercion, and the index −0.217 to 6.00.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.00 (−0.217)
- In: 6.21
- Rank by index
- 96
- In: 94
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 1
- In: 1
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.69 | 2.53 | −0.159 | 11 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6.49 | 6.04 | −0.451 | 9 |
| National Security | 4.04 | 3.55 | −0.481 | 9 → 10 |
| Human Capital | 6.88 | 6.93 | +0.052 | 13 |
| Information & Influence | 7.28 | 6.92 | −0.357 | 10 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.15 | 7.89 | −0.262 | 16 |
| Financial Strength | 6.98 | 6.97 | −0.010 | 22 |
| Production & Innovation | 6.61 | 6.42 | −0.194 | 17 |
| Trade & Investment | 6.79 | 6.71 | −0.090 | 13 → 14 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 115, plus 1 carried in. Maintenance 90. Spent 25 on actions (build 6, buy 12, partner 8). 1 carried over.
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing6 credits for 0.64 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Trade Policy & Market Access by 1 per cent
- PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access6 credits for 0.81 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Technical & Vocational Skills by 0 per cent
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills6 credits for 0.69 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 1 per cent
- BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance6 credits for 0.74 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Export Capability & Sophistication by 0 per cent
- PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication2 credits for 0.29 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 1 per cent
- Shock: Hybrid coercion S04. −18.4 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. National Security Tier 9 to 10; Trade & Investment Tier 13 to 14.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritime Power | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | 0.00 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | 0.00 |
| Energy Infrastructure | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.04 |