A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-ken-mirror-peer

Simulation 83

Kenya, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 83: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 5.23 in 2046; 90 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 83

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 46 (median simulation), 54 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 5.23 (−1.95); From 7.18
Rank by index: 113; From 79
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 3 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the mirror a peer (nga) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Buy Resource Infrastructure 7 Buy Maritime Power 7 Buy Air Power 7 Buy Space Operations 7 Buy Land Power 3		7.19 +0.014
2028	Buy Resource Infrastructure 7 Buy Maritime Power 7 Buy Air Power 7 Buy Land Power 7 Buy Space Operations 3	Regional war spillover	6.69 −0.501
2029	Buy Resource Infrastructure 7 Buy Maritime Power 7 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 7 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 3		6.71 +0.020
2030	Buy Resource Infrastructure 7 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 7 Buy Maritime Power 7 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 7 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 3	Automated discovery step	6.74 +0.028
2031	Buy Resource Infrastructure 6 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 6 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 6 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 6 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 6		6.78 +0.038
2032	Buy Resource Infrastructure 7 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 7 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 7 Buy Land Power 7 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 3		6.81 +0.038
2033	Buy Resource Infrastructure 7 Buy Space Operations 7 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 7 Buy Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 7 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 3		6.83 +0.018
2034	Buy Resource Infrastructure 6 Buy Air Power 6 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 6 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 3		6.86 +0.033
2035	Buy Resource Infrastructure 6 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 6 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 6		6.90 +0.036
2036	Buy Resource Infrastructure 6 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 6 Buy Land Power 6 Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 1	Breadbasket failureAI labour shock	5.64 −1.260
2037	Buy Resource Infrastructure 3 Buy Energy Infrastructure 3		5.43 −0.205
2038	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Buy Resource Infrastructure 1		5.21 −0.225
2039	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 Buy Resource Infrastructure 2 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 2		5.19 −0.024
2040	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 Buy Resource Infrastructure 1		5.17 −0.017
2041	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1		5.16 −0.008
2042	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4 Buy Resource Infrastructure 4 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 4 Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2		5.16 0.000
2043	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4 Buy Economic Output & Productivity 4 Buy Resource Infrastructure 4 Partner Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2 Buy Energy Infrastructure 2		5.17 +0.006
2044	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 4 Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Buy Energy Infrastructure 4 Partner Financial Stability & Crisis Management 4 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 2		5.18 +0.013
2045	Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 5 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 5 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 5 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 1		5.20 +0.024
2046	Buy Advanced Manufacturing 5 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 5 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 Buy Economic Output & Productivity 2		5.23 +0.027

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	14	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Strategic Infrastructure	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
National Security	9	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Human Capital	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15
Information & Influence	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	12	12	11	11	11	11	11	11
Governance & Integrity	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Financial Strength	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	23	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	23	24
Production & Innovation	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Trade & Investment	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.565	−41.6
No shocks	+1.484	+105.4
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.006	−0.5
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.007	−0.6
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.006	−0.5
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.007	−0.5
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.007	−0.5
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.762	+53.8
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.544	+38.3
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.496	+34.3

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.00	8.51	+2.51	+5.33	−2.68	−0.13
Maritime Power	National Security	3.50	3.69	+0.19	+2.33	−2.04	−0.10
Land Power	National Security	7.25	7.37	+0.12	+1.54	−1.20	−0.22
Air Power	National Security	4.75	4.84	+0.09	+1.61	−1.29	−0.22
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−1.29	−0.04
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	4.67	4.50	−0.17	+1.32	−1.26	−0.24
Space Operations	National Security	2.33	2.13	−0.20	+1.44	−1.40	−0.25
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.83	6.32	−0.51	+0.81	−1.17	−0.15
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.00	7.43	−0.57	+1.01	−1.17	−0.41
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.00	8.22	−0.78	+1.60	−2.04	−0.34
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	2.33	1.52	−0.81	+1.45	−2.05	−0.20
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.33	5.37	−0.96	+1.12	−1.84	−0.24
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.00	0.00	−1.00	0.00	−1.57	−0.04
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	5.79	−1.21	+1.46	−1.92	−0.75
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.60	6.36	−1.24	+1.12	−2.07	−0.28
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	1.25	0.00	−1.25	0.00	−1.61	−0.10
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.67	8.42	−1.25	0.00	−1.18	−0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.00	7.69	−1.31	0.00	−1.19	−0.12
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.33	0.00	−1.33	0.00	−1.61	−0.06
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.67	3.22	−1.45	+0.85	−1.97	−0.34
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.00	6.55	−1.45	0.00	−1.22	−0.23
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.00	5.52	−1.48	0.00	−1.36	−0.12
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.43	0.85	−1.58	0.00	−1.54	−0.04
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.00	6.42	−1.58	0.00	−1.53	−0.05
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.60	0.00	−1.60	0.00	−1.60	−0.15
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.00	2.38	−1.62	0.00	−1.55	−0.07
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	11.00	9.36	−1.64	0.00	−1.48	−0.16
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	3.55	−1.65	0.00	−1.48	−0.18
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.67	5.96	−1.71	+1.27	−2.74	−0.24
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.25	1.52	−1.73	0.00	−1.52	−0.21
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.50	2.77	−1.73	+0.83	−2.26	−0.30
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.75	7.01	−1.74	0.00	−1.32	−0.42
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.33	5.54	−1.79	0.00	−1.31	−0.48
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.00	4.16	−1.84	+0.75	−2.52	−0.07
Health System Capability	Human Capital	8.33	6.44	−1.89	0.00	−1.33	−0.56
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.29	8.35	−1.94	0.00	−1.73	−0.21
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.67	5.71	−1.96	+0.90	−2.73	−0.13
Advanced Education	Human Capital	7.67	5.70	−1.97	0.00	−1.80	−0.17
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.00	5.03	−1.97	0.00	−1.81	−0.16
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.00	6.01	−1.99	0.00	−1.53	−0.47
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.67	5.67	−2.00	0.00	−1.83	−0.17
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.50	5.46	−2.04	0.00	−1.80	−0.24
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.50	7.45	−2.05	0.00	−2.01	−0.04
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.00	5.94	−2.06	+0.52	−2.40	−0.17
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.00	8.88	−2.12	0.00	−1.76	−0.36
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.67	4.54	−2.13	+1.56	−3.46	−0.23
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.50	5.35	−2.15	+0.55	−2.26	−0.45
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.75	5.54	−2.21	+0.54	−2.25	−0.50
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.40	6.94	−2.46	0.00	−2.35	−0.11
Population Health	Human Capital	7.00	4.53	−2.47	0.00	−2.12	−0.35
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.00	6.53	−2.47	0.00	−2.22	−0.26
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	6.33	3.85	−2.48	+0.61	−2.75	−0.34
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.25	6.73	−2.52	0.00	−2.36	−0.16
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.33	2.81	−2.52	0.00	−2.16	−0.36
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.50	4.97	−2.53	0.00	−2.26	−0.27
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.60	1.01	−2.59	0.00	−2.45	−0.14
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.50	3.89	−2.61	0.00	−2.24	−0.38
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.00	5.39	−2.61	0.00	−2.24	−0.37
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.09	5.46	−2.63	0.00	−1.82	−0.80
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.00	8.36	−2.64	+0.60	−3.05	−0.19
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.25	5.53	−2.72	+0.70	−2.85	−0.57
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.50	5.78	−2.72	0.00	−2.07	−0.65
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.80	7.08	−2.72	0.00	−2.39	−0.32
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.25	6.37	−2.88	0.00	−2.32	−0.56
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.75	6.71	−3.04	0.00	−2.64	−0.39
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.67	5.58	−3.09	0.00	−2.68	−0.41
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.25	4.15	−3.10	+0.68	−3.42	−0.36
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.00	3.79	−3.21	0.00	−2.89	−0.32
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.75	3.53	−3.22	0.00	−2.94	−0.28
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.50	5.83	−3.67	0.00	−3.42	−0.25
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	10.00	6.22	−3.78	0.00	−3.44	−0.34
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.75	4.82	−3.93	+1.36	−4.77	−0.51
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.50	5.44	−4.06	+1.04	−4.58	−0.51

Seed 83 of experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.