A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-kor-greedy-marginal

Simulation 4

South Korea, greedy, 20 years, seed 4: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.26 in 2046; 62 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 4

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 51 (median simulation), 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.26 (+2.26); From 16.00
Rank by index: 1; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 1 shock; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 44 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 44 Build Digital & AI Competence 44 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 44 Build Advanced Education 44		16.05 +0.052
2028	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 44 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 44 Build Digital & AI Competence 44 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 44 Build Advanced Education 44		16.14 +0.086
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 44 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 44 Build Foundational Education 44 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 44 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 44		16.29 +0.154
2030	Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 44 Build Foundational Education 44 Build Economic Output & Productivity 44 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 44 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 44	AI labour shockMarket access opening	16.47 +0.181
2031	Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 45 Build Economic Output & Productivity 45 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 45 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 45 Partner Digital & Services Trade 45		16.60 +0.127
2032	Buy Artificial Intelligence 43 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 43 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 43 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 43 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 43	Chronic disease advance	16.82 +0.214
2033	Partner Global Value Chain Position 44 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 44 Build Early Childhood Development 44 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 44 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 44		17.02 +0.208
2034	Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 53 Build Population Health 53 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 53 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 53 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 53		17.20 +0.178
2035	Build Labour & Employment 54 Build Population Health 54 Build Financial Infrastructure 54 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 54 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 54		17.33 +0.127
2036	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 54 Build Resource Infrastructure 54 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 54 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 54 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 54		17.48 +0.156
2037	Build Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 54 Build Resource Infrastructure 54 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 54 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 54 Build Labour & Employment 54		17.64 +0.162
2038	Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 51 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 51 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 51 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 10		17.82 +0.175
2039	Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 51 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 10		17.96 +0.135
2040	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 10		18.02 +0.069
2041	No actions		18.06 +0.034
2042	No actions		18.08 +0.020
2043	No actions		18.09 +0.007
2044	No actions		18.09 +0.003
2045	No actions		18.09 0.000
2046	No actions	Automated discovery step	18.26 +0.168

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	5	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.554	−175.2	−5.60
No shocks	+0.259	+19.4	+0.25
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.020	−1.2	−0.05
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.017	−0.9	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.016	−1.1	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.012	−0.7	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.017	−1.0	−0.05
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.063	+5.4	+0.11
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.083	+6.2	+0.21
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.067	+4.9	+0.10

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	17.12	+5.37	+4.76	−0.03	+0.47	+0.17
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	19.76	+5.26	+4.74	−0.05	+0.10	+0.47
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	20.00	+5.00	+5.75	−0.01	+0.61	+0.45
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	20.00	+5.00	+4.74	−0.04	+0.08	+0.41
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	19.25	+4.75	+4.34	−0.05	+0.10	+0.36
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	20.00	+4.67	+5.83	−0.01	+0.61	+0.26
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	20.00	+4.67	+4.90	−0.05	+0.29	+0.42
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.58	+4.58	+3.72	−0.01	+0.61	+0.26
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	20.00	+4.50	+9.55	−0.02	+0.84	+0.29
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+6.58	−0.02	+0.44	+0.12
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+4.09	−0.03	+0.78	+0.62
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+4.32	−0.01	+0.57	+0.21
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+3.73	−0.01	+0.48	+0.24
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	19.81	+3.81	+3.40	−0.05	+0.10	+0.36
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	20.00	+3.50	+3.41	−0.05	+0.35	+0.26
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	19.80	+3.47	+2.40	−0.05	+0.55	+0.57
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	19.75	+3.25	+2.44	−0.03	+0.26	+0.58
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	19.14	+3.14	+2.54	−0.08	+0.32	+0.36
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	19.74	+3.14	+2.69	−0.08	+0.36	+0.17
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	19.35	+3.02	+1.78	−0.01	+1.23	+0.03
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+3.57	−0.02	+0.43	+0.43
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+4.85	−0.02	+0.44	+0.35
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+2.84	−0.05	+0.55	+0.81
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	19.44	+2.94	+2.31	−0.03	+0.48	+0.19
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	17.12	+2.92	+2.26	−0.03	+0.24	+0.45
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	18.64	+2.89	+2.28	−0.04	+0.34	+0.31
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	19.10	+2.85	+2.48	−0.05	+0.23	+0.18
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	19.83	+2.83	+1.78	−0.02	+0.57	+0.49
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	20.00	+2.75	+3.31	−0.02	+0.58	+0.25
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.71	+2.71	+2.13	−0.05	+0.30	+0.34
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	19.44	+2.64	+2.24	−0.05	+0.11	+0.34
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	19.08	+2.58	+2.13	−0.04	+0.35	+0.15
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	18.21	+2.54	+2.36	−0.04	−0.17	+0.40
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	19.15	+2.48	+1.97	−0.04	+0.35	+0.21
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	18.18	+2.43	+2.03	−0.03	+0.24	+0.18
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	18.69	+2.36	+1.54	−0.03	+0.48	+0.37
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	19.59	+2.26	+1.86	−0.05	+0.30	+0.15
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	19.01	+1.81	+0.30	−0.01	+1.02	+0.51
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.64	+1.64	0.00	−0.04	+0.56	+1.12
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.44	+1.44	0.00	−0.03	+0.62	+0.85
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	17.48	+1.28	0.00	−0.07	+0.86	+0.49
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.73	+1.23	+0.42	−0.04	+0.55	+0.29
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	17.87	+1.20	0.00	−0.02	+0.86	+0.36
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	15.39	+1.14	0.00	−0.06	+0.35	+0.84
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	19.52	+1.12	0.00	−0.03	+0.48	+0.67
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	16.69	+1.02	0.00	−0.01	+0.61	+0.42
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	19.01	+1.01	0.00	−0.05	+0.84	+0.23
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.50	+1.00	0.00	−0.03	+0.73	+0.30
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	17.08	+0.95	0.00	−0.03	+0.73	+0.24
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	17.70	+0.90	0.00	−0.03	+0.48	+0.45
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	17.37	+0.87	0.00	−0.07	+0.58	+0.36
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	17.06	+0.86	0.00	−0.01	+0.61	+0.26
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	17.53	+0.82	0.00	−0.07	+0.58	+0.31
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.39	+0.79	0.00	−0.07	+0.36	+0.49
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	18.24	+0.74	0.00	−0.07	+0.58	+0.23
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	18.72	+0.72	0.00	−0.04	+0.35	+0.41
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	15.26	+0.59	0.00	−0.06	+0.36	+0.29
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	16.07	+0.57	+0.47	−0.04	+0.10	+0.04
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	16.31	+0.56	0.00	−0.03	+0.48	+0.10
Air Power	National Security	16.75	17.28	+0.53	0.00	−0.06	+0.21	+0.37
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	16.51	+0.51	0.00	−0.05	+0.21	+0.35
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	17.51	+0.51	0.00	−0.03	+0.25	+0.28
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	16.83	+0.50	0.00	−0.03	+0.25	+0.28
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	17.14	+0.47	0.00	−0.03	+0.25	+0.24
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	16.29	+0.46	0.00	−0.05	+0.21	+0.30
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	16.23	+0.43	0.00	−0.06	+0.36	+0.13
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	16.70	+0.37	0.00	−0.05	+0.21	+0.21
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	15.70	+0.37	0.00	−0.05	+0.21	+0.21
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	14.03	+0.36	0.00	−0.04	+0.21	+0.20
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	16.30	+0.30	0.00	−0.05	+0.21	+0.14
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	16.26	+0.26	0.00	−0.05	+0.21	+0.10
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.73	+0.23	0.00	−0.05	+0.21	+0.08
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	1.87	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.21	−0.01

Seed 4 of experiment cycle-001.e3-kor-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.