A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-kor-random

Simulation 6

South Korea, random, 20 years, seed 6: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 15.95 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 6

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 63 (median simulation), 71 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 15.95 (−0.05); From 16.00
Rank by index: 6; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 3; From 2
Events: 4 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Buy Internal Security & Order 9 Partner Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 9 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 18 Buy Financial Regulation & Integrity 9 Build Economic Output & Productivity 9	Legitimacy rupture	15.87 −0.132
2028	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 44 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 18 Buy Financial Infrastructure 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 44 Buy Artificial Intelligence 44		15.92 +0.047
2029	Build Air Power 18 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 18 Partner Space Technologies 44 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 9 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 44		15.96 +0.039
2030	Buy Intelligence & Assessment 44 Partner Sensing, Timing & Navigation 9 Build Space Operations 18 Build Digital & AI Competence 44 Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 44		16.02 +0.066
2031	Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 18 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 9 Build Space Operations 9 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9 Partner Early Childhood Development 44		16.09 +0.069
2032	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 44 Partner Quantum Technologies 18 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 44 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 18 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 18		16.14 +0.052
2033	Buy Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 44 Build Labour & Employment 9 Build Air Power 9 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 9 Partner Foundational Education 9		16.19 +0.049
2034	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 44 Build Labour & Employment 44 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 18 Build Transport Infrastructure 18 Partner Space Operations 44		16.26 +0.065
2035	Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 18 Build Labour & Employment 9 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 44 Partner Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 44 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 18		16.31 +0.053
2036	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 18 Build Digital & Services Trade 9 Buy Export Capability & Sophistication 9 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9		16.38 +0.066
2037	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 44 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 44 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 44 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 9		16.46 +0.083
2038	Partner Diaspora & Global Communities 44 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 44 Buy Resource Infrastructure 9 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 44 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 44		16.53 +0.074
2039	Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 45 Buy Economic Output & Productivity 45 Build Resource Infrastructure 45 Buy Export Capability & Sophistication 9 Build Maritime Power 45	Regional war spilloverAI labour shock	15.98 −0.554
2040	Partner Air Power 9 Build Energy Technologies 45 Buy Financial Regulation & Integrity 18 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 45 Build Space Technologies 45		15.91 −0.070
2041	Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 38 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 15 Build Transport Infrastructure 15 Buy Energy Technologies 38 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15		15.85 −0.061
2042	Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Buy Space Operations 15 Buy Digital & AI Competence 38 Buy Financial Regulation & Integrity 15 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 15		15.90 +0.048
2043	Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 17 Partner Social Infrastructure 9 Build Advanced Manufacturing 9		15.92 +0.021
2044	Buy Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 42 Buy Global Value Chain Position 17 Buy Digital & Services Trade 9 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 9 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 42		15.95 +0.032
2045	Build Internal Security & Order 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 17 Buy Technical & Vocational Skills 9 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 9	Breadbasket failure	15.87 −0.084
2046	Partner Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 Partner Energy Infrastructure 43 Build Global Value Chain Position 9 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 43 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 17	Chronic disease advance	15.95 +0.085

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Governance & Integrity	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	4
Financial Strength	5	5	5	5	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.244	−89.8	−3.45
No shocks	+0.877	+62.4	+2.45
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	−0.05
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.016	−1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.018	−1.4	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.024	−1.7	−0.05
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.430	+30.7	+0.95
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.364	+26.0	+0.50
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.297	+21.2	+0.50

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	19.45	+2.45	+3.16	−0.73	+0.02
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.75	+2.15	+3.14	−1.11	+0.11
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	15.76	+2.09	+2.78	−0.86	+0.17
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	18.20	+2.00	+2.52	−0.76	+0.25
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	16.65	+1.98	+2.78	−0.81	+0.01
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	17.75	+1.92	+2.81	−0.88	0.00
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	17.66	+1.91	+2.97	−1.07	+0.02
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	18.60	+1.80	+3.07	−1.02	−0.25
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	17.53	+1.53	+2.14	−0.55	−0.07
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	17.84	+1.51	+2.81	−1.02	−0.29
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	17.44	+1.44	+2.59	−1.25	+0.10
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	16.39	+1.39	+2.81	−1.44	+0.02
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.90	+1.30	+1.94	−0.72	+0.08
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.25	+1.25	+2.05	−1.14	+0.33
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	17.94	+1.23	+1.81	−0.80	+0.21
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	16.14	+1.14	+1.74	−0.57	−0.03
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	16.43	+1.10	+2.63	−1.44	−0.10
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	16.31	+0.98	+1.73	−0.70	−0.04
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	15.14	+0.94	+2.29	−1.34	−0.01
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	17.60	+0.93	+2.14	−1.19	−0.01
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	17.35	+0.85	+2.02	−1.14	−0.03
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	12.52	+0.77	+2.35	−1.55	−0.03
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	17.68	+0.68	+1.34	−0.62	−0.03
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	16.09	+0.59	+1.61	−1.01	−0.01
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	18.39	+0.39	+1.30	−0.87	−0.04
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	1.99	+0.32	+1.43	−1.11	0.00
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	15.94	+0.27	+1.74	−1.53	+0.06
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	17.23	+0.23	+1.72	−1.38	−0.11
Air Power	National Security	16.75	16.86	+0.11	+0.90	−0.82	+0.04
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	16.24	+0.04	+1.05	−0.90	−0.12
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	16.03	+0.03	+0.67	−0.86	+0.21
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	14.28	+0.03	+0.64	−0.81	+0.21
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	16.25	−0.08	+1.45	−1.54	+0.01
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	15.61	−0.14	+1.20	−1.28	−0.05
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	15.82	−0.18	+1.18	−1.45	+0.09
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	15.27	−0.23	+0.33	−0.56	−0.01
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	15.54	−0.26	+0.34	−0.79	+0.19
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	16.98	−0.27	+0.29	−0.54	−0.01
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	15.71	−0.29	+0.69	−1.00	+0.01
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	15.37	−0.30	+0.48	−0.78	0.00
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	15.89	−0.44	+0.57	−0.89	−0.13
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	17.54	−0.46	+0.54	−1.13	+0.14
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	15.84	−0.49	+0.28	−0.76	−0.02
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	15.96	−0.54	+1.07	−1.42	−0.19
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	16.46	−0.54	+1.03	−1.37	−0.20
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	17.80	−0.60	+0.40	−0.89	−0.11
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	16.89	−0.61	+0.10	−0.76	+0.05
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	15.89	−0.61	+0.41	−0.92	−0.11
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	15.85	−0.65	0.00	−0.77	+0.13
Land Power	National Security	16.50	15.85	−0.65	0.00	−0.85	+0.20
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	16.01	−0.66	0.00	−0.49	−0.17
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	15.32	−0.68	0.00	−0.63	−0.06
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	16.65	−0.68	+0.88	−1.38	−0.18
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	15.27	−0.73	0.00	−0.82	+0.09
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	14.23	−0.77	0.00	−0.72	−0.05
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	16.16	−0.84	0.00	−0.81	−0.03
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	15.39	−0.86	+0.86	−1.85	+0.12
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	15.12	−0.88	0.00	−0.91	+0.03
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	15.16	−0.97	+0.66	−1.57	−0.06
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	15.69	−0.98	+0.26	−1.15	−0.08
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	16.01	−0.99	+0.28	−0.96	−0.32
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	15.76	−1.04	0.00	−0.99	−0.05
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	13.43	−1.07	0.00	−1.02	−0.05
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	13.39	−1.11	0.00	−1.14	+0.03
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	14.88	−1.12	+0.26	−1.46	+0.07
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	16.08	−1.12	0.00	−1.18	+0.06
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	15.73	−1.27	0.00	−1.24	−0.03
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	14.48	−1.27	0.00	−1.17	−0.10
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	15.22	−1.28	0.00	−1.16	−0.12
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	14.73	−1.60	0.00	−1.56	−0.04
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	15.70	−1.80	+0.48	−2.19	−0.10
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	14.46	−2.04	+0.27	−2.47	+0.16
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	13.21	−2.12	0.00	−2.11	−0.01

Seed 6 of experiment cycle-001.e3-kor-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.