Simulation 63
South Korea, random, 20 years, seed 63: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 16.93 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 63
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 6 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 71 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 16.93 (+0.93)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.03 +0.028 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.08 +0.050 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.13 +0.046 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.17 +0.048 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.24 +0.069 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.32 +0.073 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.38 +0.062 | |
| 2034 |
| Breadbasket failure | 16.32 −0.057 |
| 2035 |
| 16.37 +0.046 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.44 +0.070 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.55 +0.116 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.63 +0.076 | |
| 2039 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 16.73 +0.097 |
| 2040 |
| 16.82 +0.093 | |
| 2041 |
| 16.93 +0.115 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.02 +0.081 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.12 +0.105 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.16 +0.035 | |
| 2045 |
| Cryptographic trust break | 16.86 −0.296 |
| 2046 |
| 16.93 +0.068 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.244 | −89.8 | −3.45 |
| No shocks | +0.877 | +62.4 | +2.45 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | −0.05 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.024 | −1.7 | −0.05 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.430 | +30.7 | +0.95 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.364 | +26.0 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.297 | +21.2 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 14.78 | +3.03 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.12 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.01 | +3.01 | +3.05 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.07 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.22 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.13 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.80 | +2.80 | +2.65 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.79 | +2.79 | +2.98 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.07 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.76 | +2.76 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −0.17 | 0.00 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.76 | +2.76 | +3.29 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.12 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.70 | +2.70 | +2.88 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.05 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.87 | +2.54 | +2.40 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.23 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.79 | +2.54 | +2.91 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.08 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.75 | +2.42 | +2.37 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.23 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.81 | +2.31 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.08 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.29 | +2.29 | +1.84 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.32 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.46 | +2.26 | +2.14 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.13 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 19.05 | +2.25 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.21 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.65 | +2.15 | +2.01 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.38 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.41 | +2.08 | +2.13 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.15 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 18.87 | +2.07 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.06 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 17.47 | +1.97 | +1.62 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.01 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 16.21 | +1.71 | +2.13 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 17.48 | +1.65 | +2.51 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.09 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.20 | +1.60 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.71 | +1.46 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.20 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.96 | +1.46 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.83 | +1.43 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.31 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.12 | +1.41 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.20 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.08 | +1.41 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.15 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 17.30 | +1.30 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.02 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.23 | +1.23 | +1.08 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.03 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.38 | +1.05 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.04 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 17.02 | +1.02 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.02 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.02 | +1.02 | +0.85 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.28 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.54 | +0.87 | +0.64 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.10 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.81 | +0.81 | +0.64 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.12 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 16.46 | +0.79 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.34 | +0.67 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.15 | +0.65 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.09 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.64 | +0.64 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.63 | +0.63 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.20 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 15.88 | +0.55 | +0.38 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.37 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 16.10 | +0.35 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.07 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 16.82 | +0.32 | +0.38 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.06 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 17.56 | +0.31 | +0.09 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.09 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.04 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.30 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 16.94 | +0.27 | +0.28 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.10 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.24 | +0.24 | +0.28 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.06 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 14.39 | +0.19 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.25 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.18 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.08 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.66 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.48 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | 0.00 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.11 | +0.11 | +0.45 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.15 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.77 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.23 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 16.55 | +0.05 | +0.53 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.07 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 17.21 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.13 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.07 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 15.31 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.05 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 15.78 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.24 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 14.97 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.05 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.40 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.15 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.40 | −0.10 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.08 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.86 | −0.14 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.12 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.48 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.34 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 17.80 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.10 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.78 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.12 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.97 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.15 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.36 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.11 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.09 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 15.31 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.01 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.88 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.05 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.04 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | 0.00 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 15.96 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.03 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 13.51 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.04 |
Seed 63 of experiment cycle-001.e3-kor-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.