Simulation 12
United Arab Emirates, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 12: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.78 at the 1996 position, 9.75 in 2026; 140 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 12
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 26 (median simulation), 13 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 9.75 (−0.03)
- From 9.78
- Rank by index
- 48
- From 48
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 9.80 +0.015 | |
| 1998 |
| 9.83 +0.030 | |
| 1999 |
| 9.86 +0.034 | |
| 2000 |
| 9.91 +0.046 | |
| 2001 |
| 9.96 +0.053 | |
| 2002 |
| 10.01 +0.052 | |
| 2003 |
| 10.05 +0.043 | |
| 2004 |
| 10.10 +0.042 | |
| 2005 |
| 10.14 +0.045 | |
| 2006 |
| 10.19 +0.044 | |
| 2007 |
| 10.22 +0.037 | |
| 2008 |
| 10.26 +0.034 | |
| 2009 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.05 −0.209 |
| 2010 |
| 10.07 +0.022 | |
| 2011 |
| 10.09 +0.018 | |
| 2012 |
| 10.11 +0.017 | |
| 2013 |
| 10.12 +0.015 | |
| 2014 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.97 −0.151 |
| 2015 |
| 9.99 +0.020 | |
| 2016 |
| 10.01 +0.024 | |
| 2017 |
| 10.04 +0.024 | |
| 2018 |
| 10.06 +0.026 | |
| 2019 |
| 10.09 +0.026 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicMiddle East settlement | 9.80 −0.287 |
| 2021 |
| 9.88 +0.078 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 9.71 −0.176 |
| 2023 |
| 9.72 +0.019 | |
| 2024 |
| 9.74 +0.013 | |
| 2025 |
| 9.75 +0.009 | |
| 2026 |
| 9.75 +0.008 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Production & Innovation | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Trade & Investment | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.056 | −84.5 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.024 | +68.9 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.022 | +1.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.011 | +0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.022 | +1.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.011 | +0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.011 | +0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.383 | +26.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.258 | +18.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.274 | +17.9 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.55 | 10.15 | +8.60 | +9.54 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.05 | 16.89 | +6.84 | +7.05 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.58 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.31 | 11.83 | +6.52 | +7.37 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.03 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.96 | 17.03 | +4.07 | +4.91 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.25 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.22 | 16.22 | +4.00 | +4.31 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.28 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 6.93 | 10.06 | +3.13 | +3.41 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.21 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.48 | 18.02 | +2.54 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.23 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 14.52 | 16.78 | +2.26 | +4.01 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.17 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.62 | 9.82 | +2.20 | +2.60 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.13 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.96 | 17.11 | +2.15 | +2.96 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.38 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 10.45 | 12.53 | +2.08 | +2.51 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.05 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 16.05 | 18.01 | +1.96 | +3.38 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.31 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.86 | 15.60 | +1.74 | +2.08 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.08 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.66 | 14.18 | +1.52 | +2.44 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.24 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.98 | 5.18 | +1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +1.56 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.35 | 12.08 | +0.73 | +1.93 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.22 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.83 | 7.37 | +0.54 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.10 |
| Air Power | National Security | 8.54 | 8.74 | +0.20 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.10 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.30 | 6.47 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.83 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 8.15 | 8.29 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.28 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.14 | 6.18 | +0.04 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.03 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.20 | 8.20 | 0.00 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.85 | 9.66 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.25 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 2.18 | 1.92 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.64 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.34 | 6.01 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.95 | 5.60 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.20 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.02 | 6.64 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.07 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.33 | 6.94 | −0.39 | +0.19 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.26 | 7.85 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.08 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 13.02 | 12.61 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.18 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.54 | 8.10 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.11 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 7.12 | 6.67 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.68 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.22 | 10.77 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 11.39 | 10.94 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 8.57 | 8.09 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.03 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.58 | 8.09 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.03 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 7.75 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.05 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.35 | 9.82 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.10 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.55 | 6.00 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.05 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.65 | 13.10 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.14 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.40 | 9.85 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.09 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 4.25 | 3.68 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.03 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 4.62 | −0.58 | +0.31 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.39 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.90 | 2.27 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.25 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 6.89 | 6.26 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.02 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.41 | 13.74 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.21 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.61 | 9.94 | −0.67 | +0.13 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.10 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 12.33 | 11.66 | −0.67 | +0.15 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.15 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.73 | 3.05 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.20 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 4.48 | 3.75 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.13 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.54 | 10.73 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.32 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.27 | 12.39 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.05 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.39 | 0.51 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 10.33 | 9.45 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.20 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 12.31 | 11.41 | −0.90 | +0.12 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.17 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.06 | 11.14 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.15 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 12.53 | 11.61 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.14 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 12.09 | 11.14 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.35 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 8.48 | 7.48 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.04 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 17.10 | 16.01 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.08 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.20 | 7.94 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.15 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.72 | 9.44 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.04 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.33 | 11.95 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.11 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.93 | 8.44 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.15 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 11.75 | 10.20 | −1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | +0.11 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.15 | 10.51 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.03 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 13.15 | 11.49 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.10 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 11.34 | 9.62 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 10.23 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.10 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 10.19 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.13 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 8.13 | 5.99 | −2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.05 | −0.09 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 13.62 | 11.06 | −2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.26 | −0.31 |
Seed 12 of experiment cycle-002.e4-are. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.