E4 · cycle-002.e4-are

United Arab Emirates, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. United Arab Emirates decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 13, Global funding seizure in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Middle East settlement in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 9.77 (−0.01); From 9.78; 9.75 to 9.79
Rank by index: 48; From 48; 48 to 48
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 20; From 29; 20 to 20

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	9.78	9.75	9.77	9.79	higher
Rank by index	48	48	48	48	lower
Tier rank	29	20	20	20	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	691.9	701.0	702.4	704.1	higher
Goal-weighted score	691.9	701.0	702.4	704.1	higher
Resilient score	691.9	702.5 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 56 per cent, buy took 2 per cent, partner took 42 per cent of the 1,313 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks United Arab Emirates actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 9.78; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 11.94; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 9.77; 9.71 to 9.84
Skill against persistence: −0.18; group error 2.91 against 2.47 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	4.36	7.12	6.26 6.2–6.4	−0.87	right
Strategic Infrastructure	11.73	13.96	12.93 12.8–13.0	−1.04	right
National Security	6.45	10.56	6.57 6.4–6.7	−3.98	wrong
Human Capital	10.33	12.51	10.46 10.4–10.6	−2.05	wrong
Information & Influence	9.44	12.19	9.25 9.2–9.3	−2.94	wrong
Governance & Integrity	9.74	10.26	9.17 9.1–9.2	−1.10	wrong
Financial Strength	12.96	14.09	11.21 11.2–11.3	−2.88	wrong
Production & Innovation	10.26	11.95	9.34 9.3–9.4	−2.62	wrong
Trade & Investment	12.77	14.82	12.76 12.7–12.8	−2.06	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2009 · S02 × 0.9 The global financial crisis and Dubai World's standstill forced a sovereign-linked debt restructuring and Abu Dhabi support.
2014 · S02 × 0.6 The oil-price crash slashed hydrocarbon revenues and forced fiscal consolidation across the federation.
2020 · S10 × 0.7 COVID-19 struck tourism, aviation and logistics, though wealth and public-health capacity kept the health impact contained.
2020 · S14 × 0.5 The Abraham Accords normalised relations with Israel and opened new investment, technology and security cooperation.
2022 · S03 × 0.4 Houthi drone and missile attacks on Abu Dhabi brought the Yemen war's spillover onto UAE territory.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2003 · build · 5% each Dubai and Abu Dhabi expanded hydrocarbons, ports, airports, free zones and financial infrastructure to diversify beyond crude oil. (Resource Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure, Financial Infrastructure, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Investment Attraction & Projection)
2000–2008 · build · 2% each The knowledge-economy agenda launched Dubai Internet City, Media City and higher-education free zones to attract services and talent. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Digital & Services Trade, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy, Advanced Education)
2004–2014 · partner · 5% each The UAE pursued civil nuclear power at Barakah and renewables through Masdar, partnering with foreign vendors and universities. (Energy Technologies, Energy Infrastructure, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing)
2008–2016 · buy · 2% each Sustained defence modernisation bought advanced Western air, missile-defence and naval capabilities and supported coalition operations in Yemen. (Air Power, Maritime Power, Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment)
2014–2024 · partner · 5% each The Hope Mars mission, national AI strategy and cyber-security push made advanced technology a flagship of the post-oil economy. (Space Technologies, Artificial Intelligence, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Digital & AI Competence, Technology Adoption & Diffusion)
2019–2026 · build · 2% each COVID-19 and food-security concerns drove investment in health, life sciences, agrifood technology and domestic human capital. (Biotechnology & Health Technologies, Health System Capability, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Population Health, Foundational Education)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties are the relative scoring of a small, expatriate-majority hydrocarbon state against global leaders, the opacity of sovereign wealth and ruling-family finances, and the lack of a direct commodity-price event in the library, which forced oil shocks into the nearest financial-shock category.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

United Arab Emirates played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.78 to a median of 9.77 (−0.01), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.75 and 9.79 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 48 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 29. Its base income is 274 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,311 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Energy Technologies (partner, 149 credits, 11.4 per cent); Space Technologies (partner, 128 credits, 9.8 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (partner, 112 credits, 8.6 per cent); Financial Infrastructure (build, 97 credits, 7.4 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 97 credits, 7.4 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 56 per cent, partner 42 per cent, buy 2 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.069, and the most repeated action appeared in 37 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Critical Technology; rounds 16 to 20, Critical Technology; rounds 21 to 25, Critical Technology; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 4 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −25.8 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −18.6 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −13.3 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.35; Labour & Employment −2.15; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −1.83; Financial Regulation & Integrity −1.77 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Space Technologies to Space Operations (+1.73 points); Space Technologies to Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (+1.46 points); Space Technologies to Sensing, Timing & Navigation (+0.61 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 48 (5th to 95th percentile 48 to 48), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 20; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 703 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.024 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.024 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.056: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between +0.011 and +0.022, for example 2010 partner Energy Technologies (14 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.383 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 3 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

retired_words (warn): e4-are/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 6) ends −0.03 from it, with 4 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 9.78 the model ends at 9.77, where the 2026 ratings put it at 11.94. Group scores miss by 2.91 points on average, against 2.47 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.18); the change in each domain has the right sign in 22 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: national security (−3.98); furthest above: critical technology (−0.87) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.056	−84.5	0.00
No shocks	+1.024	+68.9	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.022	+1.8	0.00	2010 partner Energy Technologies (14 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.011	+0.9	0.00	2010 partner Energy Infrastructure (14 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.022	+1.8	0.00	2009 partner Energy Technologies (14 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.011	+0.8	0.00	2009 partner Energy Infrastructure (14 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.011	+0.9	0.00	2007 partner Energy Technologies (14 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.383	+26.4	0.00	2020 S10 (-25.9 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.258	+18.5	0.00	2022 S03 (-18.6 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.274	+17.9	0.00	2009 S02 (-15.8 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	15.5	−13.3
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−18.6
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−25.8
Middle East settlement S14	Upside	100 per cent	24.0	+11.0

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.55	10.17 10.14 to 10.22	+8.62	9.56	128
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	10.05	16.80 16.67 to 17.09	+6.75	7.05	149
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.31	11.84 11.75 to 12.03	+6.53	7.46	97
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.96	17.01 16.93 to 17.07	+4.05	4.91	97
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.22	16.13 15.96 to 16.28	+3.91	4.34	112
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	6.93	10.08 9.76 to 10.66	+3.15	3.52	48
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.48	18.01 17.93 to 18.07	+2.53	2.93	97
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	14.52	16.80 16.78 to 16.83	+2.28	4.02	96
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.96	17.18 17.10 to 17.28	+2.22	2.96	97
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.62	9.83 9.78 to 9.89	+2.21	2.60	39
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.45	12.51 12.50 to 12.53	+2.06	2.51	39
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	16.05	18.02 17.93 to 18.10	+1.97	3.38	97
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.86	15.57 15.55 to 15.59	+1.71	2.08	45
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.66	14.17 14.12 to 14.23	+1.51	2.44	45
Space Operations	National Security	3.98	5.36 4.92 to 5.83	+1.38	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.35	12.13 12.09 to 12.17	+0.78	1.93	39
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.30	7.07 6.50 to 7.63	+0.77	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.83	7.47 7.38 to 7.70	+0.64	1.35	14
Air Power	National Security	8.54	8.76 8.74 to 8.79	+0.22	0.65	11
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.15	8.27 8.13 to 8.36	+0.12	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	6.14	6.18 6.17 to 6.19	+0.04	0.76	11
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.20	8.20 8.18 to 8.22	0.00	0.66	11
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.01	0.00	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.95	5.88 5.64 to 6.10	−0.07	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	9.62 9.57 to 9.67	−0.23	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.18	1.92 1.71 to 2.14	−0.26	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.34	6.02 6.01 to 6.04	−0.32	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	6.65 6.63 to 6.67	−0.37	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	13.02	12.65 12.60 to 12.68	−0.37	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.33	6.93 6.91 to 6.94	−0.40	0.19	10
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	8.18 8.11 to 8.26	−0.40	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	8.26	7.85 7.82 to 7.86	−0.41	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	7.12	6.67 6.55 to 6.77	−0.45	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	11.39	10.94 10.93 to 10.94	−0.45	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.22	10.76 10.74 to 10.77	−0.46	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.57	8.09 8.08 to 8.10	−0.48	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.73	3.24 3.08 to 3.33	−0.49	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.54	8.03 7.97 to 8.08	−0.51	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	7.74 7.73 to 7.76	−0.51	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.35	9.84 9.82 to 9.87	−0.51	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	13.65	13.10 13.06 to 13.13	−0.55	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	10.40	9.85 9.83 to 9.88	−0.55	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.55	5.99 5.98 to 6.01	−0.56	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	4.25	3.69 3.68 to 3.70	−0.56	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	6.89	6.27 6.26 to 6.28	−0.62	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.90	2.26 2.18 to 2.37	−0.64	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	12.33	11.68 11.65 to 11.70	−0.65	0.15	10
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	4.53 4.46 to 4.63	−0.67	0.31	10
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.48	3.81 3.75 to 3.89	−0.67	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.61	9.93 9.90 to 9.96	−0.68	0.12	5
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.41	13.69 13.61 to 13.76	−0.72	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	12.09	11.23 11.16 to 11.27	−0.86	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.27	12.41 12.37 to 12.46	−0.86	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	10.33	9.47 9.39 to 9.54	−0.86	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.52 0.50 to 0.54	−0.87	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.54	10.66 10.62 to 10.77	−0.88	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.53	11.65 11.60 to 11.69	−0.88	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.31	11.39 11.34 to 11.43	−0.92	0.12	10
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.06	11.14 11.11 to 11.17	−0.92	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.48	7.56 7.49 to 7.61	−0.92	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	17.10	15.98 15.92 to 16.04	−1.12	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.20	7.95 7.93 to 7.98	−1.25	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	9.45 9.42 to 9.48	−1.27	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.33	11.96 11.93 to 11.98	−1.37	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	8.48 8.44 to 8.51	−1.45	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.75	10.17 10.14 to 10.21	−1.58	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	13.15	11.51 11.47 to 11.54	−1.64	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	11.34	9.63 9.62 to 9.64	−1.71	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.15	10.41 10.35 to 10.51	−1.74	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.98	10.22 10.16 to 10.27	−1.76	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.98	10.14 10.08 to 10.20	−1.84	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.13	5.98 5.96 to 6.00	−2.15	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	13.62	11.10 11.06 to 11.17	−2.52	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 4.2e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 19.945
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.19 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 3 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 48; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.069; most funded group hard.critical_technology.energy_technologies
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 37% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-are. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: United Arab Emirates (ARE)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 13, Global funding seizure in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Middle East settlement in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 273.6 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.6 seconds in all; 1106 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.