A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-geo

Simulation 11

Georgia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 11: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 6.45 at the 1996 position, 2.56 in 2026; 84 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 11

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 15 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 2.56 (−3.89); From 6.45
Rank by index: 179; From 90
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 8 shocks; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.45 +0.002
1998	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2	Global funding seizure	6.21 −0.246
1999	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.21 0.000
2000	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2	Market access opening	6.22 +0.014
2001	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.24 +0.017
2002	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.26 +0.018
2003	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2	Legitimacy rupture	6.00 −0.254
2004	Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6		6.01 +0.007
2005	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5		6.01 +0.007
2006	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5	Trade bloc rupture	5.92 −0.094
2007	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 1		5.83 −0.094
2008	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 2 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 0	Regional war spilloverGlobal funding seizure	4.20 −1.632
2009	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 2 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 0		4.18 −0.020
2010	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 1		4.13 −0.043
2011	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 0		4.09 −0.039
2012	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 1		4.06 −0.038
2013	No actions		4.02 −0.036
2014	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1	Market access opening	4.03 +0.008
2015	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 0		4.04 +0.012
2016	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1 Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 0		4.05 +0.014
2017	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1		4.05 −0.003
2018	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1		4.05 −0.003
2019	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1		4.05 +0.003
2020	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1	Severe pandemic	3.27 −0.780
2021	No actions	Legitimacy rupture	2.98 −0.294
2022	No actions	Breadbasket failure	2.77 −0.212
2023	No actions	Market access opening	2.71 −0.052
2024	No actions		2.66 −0.052
2025	No actions		2.61 −0.051
2026	No actions		2.56 −0.050

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	19	22	22	22	22	24	24
Strategic Infrastructure	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	12	12	12	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	16	16	18	18	19	19
Human Capital	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	15	15	15	15
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	15	16	16	16	16	17	17
Governance & Integrity	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	19	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	20	20	20	20
Financial Strength	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	23	23	23	23	23	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	41	42	42	42	42	43	43
Production & Innovation	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	24	26	28	28	28	28	28
Trade & Investment	13	13	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	22	23	24	24	24	24	24

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.176	−12.8
No shocks	+4.782	+335.5
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.009	+0.7
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.007	+0.5
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.007	+0.5
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.070	−5.0
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.012	+0.8
Without the 1st largest shock	+1.699	+122.2
Without the 2nd largest shock	+1.026	+71.6
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.444	+30.8

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−3.23	−0.10
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	6.05	−1.35	+1.21	−0.18	−1.99	−0.39
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.00	−1.39	0.00	0.00	−3.21	−0.07
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.55	0.00	−1.55	0.00	0.00	−2.84	−0.15
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.17	5.50	−1.67	+1.20	−0.16	−2.46	−0.26
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.86	5.90	−1.96	0.00	−0.29	−1.45	−0.23
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	6.82	4.85	−1.97	+0.37	−0.15	−2.17	−0.02
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.99	4.93	−2.06	0.00	−0.24	−1.62	−0.19
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	2.14	0.00	−2.14	0.00	0.00	−3.65	−0.10
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.08	6.93	−2.15	+1.87	−0.20	−3.52	−0.30
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.18	0.00	−2.18	0.00	0.00	−2.82	−0.24
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.08	5.89	−2.19	0.00	−0.29	−1.59	−0.30
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.33	5.03	−2.30	0.00	−0.25	−1.61	−0.43
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.40	7.04	−2.36	0.00	−0.35	−1.56	−0.46
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.72	0.00	−2.72	0.00	0.00	−2.80	−0.15
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.81	7.07	−2.74	0.00	−0.36	−1.66	−0.72
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	3.57	−2.79	0.00	−0.11	−2.53	−0.15
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	4.13	−2.81	0.00	−0.12	−2.50	−0.18
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.92	0.08	−2.84	0.00	−0.02	−2.79	−0.03
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.49	5.62	−2.87	+0.84	−0.45	−2.54	−0.72
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.67	3.77	−2.90	0.00	−0.11	−2.52	−0.27
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.53	6.58	−2.95	0.00	−0.33	−2.12	−0.50
Population Health	Human Capital	7.43	4.44	−2.99	0.00	−0.15	−2.33	−0.51
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.39	0.33	−3.06	0.00	−0.07	−2.77	−0.21
Maritime Power	National Security	3.11	0.00	−3.11	0.00	0.00	−4.62	−0.18
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.23	5.06	−3.17	+1.51	−0.40	−3.34	−0.93
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.39	2.06	−3.33	+0.90	−0.17	−3.69	−0.37
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	1.62	−3.35	0.00	−0.14	−2.57	−0.65
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.85	0.49	−3.36	0.00	−0.10	−3.09	−0.16
Health System Capability	Human Capital	8.47	5.11	−3.36	0.00	−0.26	−2.40	−0.70
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	0.00	−3.50	0.00	−0.01	−3.08	−0.52
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	4.86	−3.57	0.00	−0.53	−3.02	−0.02
Air Power	National Security	4.11	0.54	−3.57	0.00	−0.10	−3.05	−0.43
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.97	5.39	−3.58	0.00	−0.67	−2.45	−0.46
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.19	2.55	−3.64	0.00	−0.39	−2.96	−0.30
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	1.50	−3.68	0.00	−0.28	−2.69	−0.71
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.62	3.94	−3.68	0.00	−0.44	−3.05	−0.20
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.12	0.40	−3.72	0.00	−0.06	−3.18	−0.49
Land Power	National Security	5.59	1.81	−3.78	0.00	−0.29	−2.98	−0.51
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.92	4.14	−3.78	+0.29	−0.47	−3.05	−0.55
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.15	4.37	−3.78	0.00	−0.13	−3.26	−0.39
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.79	3.92	−3.87	0.00	−0.32	−2.48	−1.07
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.94	4.99	−3.95	0.00	−0.40	−2.78	−0.77
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.90	3.95	−3.95	0.00	−0.33	−2.65	−0.97
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	5.75	1.79	−3.96	0.00	−0.30	−2.98	−0.69
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	7.34	3.21	−4.13	+1.32	−0.36	−4.60	−0.48
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.15	0.00	−4.15	0.00	0.00	−4.55	−0.49
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	6.10	1.90	−4.20	0.00	−0.23	−3.63	−0.35
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.66	0.40	−4.26	0.00	−0.09	−3.97	−0.21
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.21	1.92	−4.29	0.00	−0.21	−3.62	−0.46
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.91	2.62	−4.29	0.00	−0.28	−3.59	−0.41
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.45	1.08	−4.37	0.00	−0.09	−3.84	−0.44
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	6.96	2.58	−4.38	0.00	−0.28	−3.59	−0.53
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	6.33	1.94	−4.39	0.00	−0.21	−3.61	−0.57
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	7.76	3.12	−4.64	+0.33	−0.49	−3.62	−0.85
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.21	2.45	−4.76	0.00	−0.27	−3.90	−0.60
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	3.37	−4.84	0.00	−0.36	−4.12	−0.36
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	6.33	1.37	−4.96	0.00	−0.15	−4.33	−0.48
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	5.63	0.62	−5.01	0.00	−0.11	−4.45	−0.45
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	5.66	0.62	−5.04	0.00	−0.05	−4.35	−0.64
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	6.02	0.94	−5.08	0.00	−0.12	−4.72	−0.24
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	5.22	0.00	−5.22	0.00	−0.01	−4.82	−0.66
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.52	3.29	−5.23	0.00	−0.29	−3.18	−1.76
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	7.16	1.88	−5.28	0.00	−0.13	−5.00	−0.14
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.01	2.69	−5.32	+0.01	−0.18	−4.94	−0.20
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.71	2.23	−5.48	0.00	−0.15	−4.96	−0.37
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	7.01	1.48	−5.53	0.00	−0.17	−4.71	−0.64
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.34	0.68	−5.66	0.00	−0.08	−5.20	−0.39
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	7.50	1.66	−5.84	+0.93	−0.12	−5.90	−0.75
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	5.86	0.00	−5.86	+0.05	−0.01	−5.52	−0.39
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.27	0.00	−6.27	0.00	0.00	−6.36	−0.71
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.39	0.00	−7.39	+1.03	−0.01	−7.81	−0.73
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.76	0.25	−7.51	0.00	−0.04	−6.96	−0.51

Seed 11 of experiment cycle-002.e4-geo. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.