Median simulation · cycle-002.e4-geo

Simulation 1

Georgia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 6.45 at the 1996 position, 2.52 in 2026; 64 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 15 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 2.52 (−3.93); From 6.45
Rank by index: 179; From 90
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 8 shocks; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.45 +0.002
1998	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2	Global funding seizure	6.21 −0.246
1999	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.21 0.000
2000	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2	Market access opening	6.22 +0.015
2001	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.24 +0.017
2002	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.26 +0.018
2003	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2	Legitimacy rupture	6.00 −0.254
2004	Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6		6.01 +0.007
2005	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5		6.01 +0.007
2006	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5	Trade bloc rupture	5.92 −0.094
2007	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5		5.83 −0.094
2008	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 2 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 0	Regional war spilloverGlobal funding seizure	4.19 −1.633
2009	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 1		4.17 −0.021
2010	No actions		4.13 −0.044
2011	No actions		4.09 −0.041
2012	No actions		4.05 −0.040
2013	No actions		4.01 −0.037
2014	No actions	Market access opening	4.01 +0.006
2015	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 0		4.03 +0.010
2016	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 0		4.04 +0.012
2017	No actions		4.03 −0.006
2018	No actions		4.02 −0.007
2019	No actions		4.02 −0.001
2020	No actions	Severe pandemic	3.24 −0.784
2021	No actions	Legitimacy rupture	2.94 −0.301
2022	No actions	Breadbasket failure	2.73 −0.211
2023	No actions	Market access opening	2.68 −0.051
2024	No actions		2.62 −0.051
2025	No actions		2.58 −0.050
2026	No actions		2.52 −0.050

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	19	19	22	22	22	22	24
Strategic Infrastructure	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	12	12	12	12	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	16	16	18	18	18	19
Human Capital	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	15	15	15	15
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	15	16	16	16	16	17	17
Governance & Integrity	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	19	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	20	20	20	20	20
Financial Strength	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	23	23	23	23	23	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	41	42	42	42	42	43	43
Production & Innovation	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	24	26	28	28	28	28	28
Trade & Investment	13	13	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	22	24	24	24	24	24	25

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.176	−12.8
No shocks	+4.782	+335.5
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.009	+0.7
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.007	+0.5
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.007	+0.5
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.070	−5.0
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.012	+0.8
Without the 1st largest shock	+1.699	+122.2
Without the 2nd largest shock	+1.026	+71.6
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.444	+30.8

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−3.24	−0.17
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	6.03	−1.37	+1.20	−0.20	−2.00	−0.39
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.00	−1.39	0.00	0.00	−3.21	−0.08
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.55	0.00	−1.55	0.00	0.00	−2.85	−0.08
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.17	5.40	−1.77	+1.20	−0.18	−2.46	−0.33
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.86	5.86	−2.00	0.00	−0.33	−1.46	−0.22
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.99	4.86	−2.13	0.00	−0.27	−1.63	−0.23
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	2.14	0.00	−2.14	0.00	0.00	−3.65	−0.12
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.18	0.00	−2.18	0.00	0.00	−2.82	−0.27
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.08	5.80	−2.28	0.00	−0.32	−1.60	−0.36
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.33	5.03	−2.30	0.00	−0.28	−1.62	−0.40
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.40	7.10	−2.30	0.00	−0.40	−1.56	−0.34
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	6.82	4.51	−2.31	+0.02	−0.15	−2.17	−0.01
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.08	6.74	−2.34	+1.86	−0.22	−3.54	−0.44
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.81	7.20	−2.61	0.00	−0.41	−1.67	−0.53
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.72	0.00	−2.72	0.00	−0.01	−2.80	−0.16
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	4.17	−2.77	0.00	−0.14	−2.51	−0.12
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.92	0.05	−2.87	0.00	−0.03	−2.79	−0.04
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	3.49	−2.87	0.00	−0.12	−2.54	−0.21
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.67	3.77	−2.90	0.00	−0.13	−2.52	−0.25
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.23	5.32	−2.91	+1.46	−0.47	−3.35	−0.54
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.49	5.56	−2.93	+0.68	−0.50	−2.55	−0.57
Population Health	Human Capital	7.43	4.48	−2.95	0.00	−0.17	−2.33	−0.44
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.53	6.55	−2.98	0.00	−0.37	−2.13	−0.49
Maritime Power	National Security	3.11	0.00	−3.11	0.00	0.00	−4.62	−0.19
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.39	0.22	−3.17	0.00	−0.07	−2.77	−0.32
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.85	0.48	−3.37	0.00	−0.12	−3.10	−0.15
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	1.59	−3.38	0.00	−0.15	−2.58	−0.65
Air Power	National Security	4.11	0.68	−3.43	0.00	−0.13	−3.05	−0.25
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	0.00	−3.50	0.00	−0.01	−3.08	−0.54
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.97	5.47	−3.50	0.00	−0.77	−2.45	−0.28
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.39	1.88	−3.51	+0.90	−0.18	−3.70	−0.54
Health System Capability	Human Capital	8.47	4.93	−3.54	0.00	−0.28	−2.41	−0.84
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.19	2.59	−3.60	0.00	−0.45	−2.96	−0.20
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	1.54	−3.64	0.00	−0.33	−2.70	−0.61
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	4.78	−3.65	0.00	−0.60	−3.03	−0.03
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.12	0.42	−3.70	0.00	−0.07	−3.19	−0.45
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.62	3.88	−3.74	0.00	−0.49	−3.06	−0.20
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.92	4.11	−3.81	+0.29	−0.53	−3.05	−0.52
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	5.75	1.91	−3.84	0.00	−0.35	−2.98	−0.51
Land Power	National Security	5.59	1.73	−3.86	0.00	−0.32	−2.99	−0.56
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.15	4.22	−3.93	0.00	−0.14	−3.27	−0.52
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.79	3.80	−3.99	0.00	−0.35	−2.49	−1.14
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.90	3.89	−4.01	0.00	−0.36	−2.66	−0.99
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.94	4.87	−4.07	0.00	−0.44	−2.78	−0.84
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.15	0.00	−4.15	0.00	0.00	−4.55	−0.54
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	6.10	1.87	−4.23	0.00	−0.26	−3.64	−0.34
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.66	0.43	−4.23	0.00	−0.12	−3.98	−0.14
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.91	2.65	−4.26	0.00	−0.33	−3.60	−0.34
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	6.33	1.98	−4.35	0.00	−0.25	−3.62	−0.49
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.21	1.86	−4.35	0.00	−0.24	−3.63	−0.49
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.45	0.99	−4.46	0.00	−0.10	−3.85	−0.52
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	6.96	2.48	−4.48	0.00	−0.31	−3.59	−0.59
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.52	3.73	−4.79	0.00	−0.36	−3.19	−1.24
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.21	2.41	−4.80	0.00	−0.30	−3.90	−0.59
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	5.63	0.73	−4.90	0.00	−0.14	−4.46	−0.30
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	3.25	−4.96	0.00	−0.40	−4.13	−0.44
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	5.66	0.68	−4.98	0.00	−0.06	−4.36	−0.56
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	7.34	2.26	−5.08	+0.37	−0.29	−4.58	−0.57
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	6.33	1.22	−5.11	0.00	−0.17	−4.33	−0.60
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	6.02	0.90	−5.12	0.00	−0.14	−4.73	−0.24
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	7.76	2.59	−5.17	+0.19	−0.49	−3.63	−1.23
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	5.22	0.00	−5.22	0.00	−0.01	−4.83	−0.64
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	7.16	1.89	−5.27	0.00	−0.15	−5.01	−0.11
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.01	2.69	−5.32	0.00	−0.21	−4.94	−0.16
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	7.01	1.62	−5.39	0.00	−0.21	−4.72	−0.46
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.71	2.21	−5.50	0.00	−0.18	−4.97	−0.36
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	7.50	1.90	−5.60	+0.93	−0.16	−5.91	−0.46
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	5.86	0.03	−5.83	0.00	−0.02	−5.53	−0.28
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.34	0.48	−5.86	0.00	−0.08	−5.21	−0.57
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.27	0.00	−6.27	0.00	0.00	−6.37	−0.84
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.76	0.41	−7.35	0.00	−0.08	−6.97	−0.30
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.39	0.00	−7.39	+1.00	−0.01	−7.83	−1.02

Seed 1 of experiment cycle-002.e4-geo. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.