A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-geo

Simulation 15

Georgia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 15: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 6.45 at the 1996 position, 2.50 in 2026; 68 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 15

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 2.50 (−3.95); From 6.45
Rank by index: 179; From 90
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 8 shocks; 3 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.45 +0.002
1998	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2	Global funding seizure	6.21 −0.246
1999	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.21 0.000
2000	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2	Market access opening	6.22 +0.013
2001	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.24 +0.017
2002	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		6.25 +0.018
2003	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2	Legitimacy rupture	6.00 −0.254
2004	Build Internal Security & Order 6 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6		6.01 +0.006
2005	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5		6.01 +0.006
2006	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 5	Trade bloc rupture	5.92 −0.095
2007	Build Internal Security & Order 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5		5.82 −0.095
2008	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 2 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 0	Regional war spilloverGlobal funding seizure	4.19 −1.634
2009	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 1		4.16 −0.024
2010	No actions		4.11 −0.052
2011	No actions		4.07 −0.045
2012	No actions		4.02 −0.043
2013	No actions		3.98 −0.040
2014	No actions	Market access opening	3.99 +0.004
2015	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 0		4.00 +0.009
2016	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 0		4.01 +0.012
2017	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 0		4.00 −0.006
2018	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 0		4.00 −0.006
2019	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 0		4.00 0.000
2020	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 0	Severe pandemic	3.21 −0.784
2021	No actions	Legitimacy rupture	2.91 −0.301
2022	No actions	Breadbasket failure	2.70 −0.210
2023	No actions	Market access opening	2.65 −0.052
2024	No actions		2.60 −0.052
2025	No actions		2.54 −0.050
2026	No actions		2.50 −0.050

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	19	19	22	22	22	22	24
Strategic Infrastructure	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	12	12	12	12	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	16	16	16	18	18	18
Human Capital	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	15	15	15	15
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	15	16	16	16	17	17	17
Governance & Integrity	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	19	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	20	20	20	20	20
Financial Strength	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	23	23	23	23	23	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	41	42	42	42	43	43	43
Production & Innovation	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	24	26	28	28	28	28	28
Trade & Investment	13	13	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	22	24	24	24	24	24	24

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.176	−12.8
No shocks	+4.782	+335.5
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.009	+0.7
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.007	+0.5
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.007	+0.5
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.070	−5.0
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.012	+0.8
Without the 1st largest shock	+1.699	+122.2
Without the 2nd largest shock	+1.026	+71.6
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.444	+30.8

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.01	+0.01	0.00	0.00	−3.24	−0.09
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.00	−1.39	0.00	0.00	−3.22	−0.10
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	5.91	−1.49	+1.20	−0.19	−2.00	−0.51
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.55	0.00	−1.55	0.00	0.00	−2.85	−0.13
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.17	5.38	−1.79	+1.20	−0.17	−2.46	−0.36
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.86	5.87	−1.99	0.00	−0.32	−1.46	−0.22
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.99	4.88	−2.11	0.00	−0.27	−1.63	−0.22
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	2.14	0.00	−2.14	0.00	0.00	−3.66	−0.09
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.18	0.00	−2.18	0.00	0.00	−2.83	−0.26
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	6.82	4.54	−2.28	+0.05	−0.15	−2.17	−0.02
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.08	5.79	−2.29	0.00	−0.32	−1.60	−0.38
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.08	6.79	−2.29	+1.86	−0.22	−3.54	−0.40
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.40	7.08	−2.32	0.00	−0.38	−1.56	−0.37
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.33	5.01	−2.32	0.00	−0.27	−1.62	−0.42
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.81	7.27	−2.54	0.00	−0.40	−1.67	−0.46
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.72	0.00	−2.72	0.00	−0.01	−2.80	−0.15
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	4.17	−2.77	0.00	−0.14	−2.51	−0.12
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	3.51	−2.85	0.00	−0.12	−2.54	−0.19
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.53	6.67	−2.86	0.00	−0.36	−2.13	−0.37
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.92	0.04	−2.88	0.00	−0.02	−2.80	−0.06
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.67	3.76	−2.91	0.00	−0.12	−2.52	−0.26
Population Health	Human Capital	7.43	4.47	−2.96	0.00	−0.17	−2.34	−0.46
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.49	5.47	−3.02	+0.68	−0.48	−2.55	−0.68
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.39	0.35	−3.04	0.00	−0.09	−2.78	−0.18
Maritime Power	National Security	3.11	0.00	−3.11	0.00	0.00	−4.63	−0.19
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.23	5.05	−3.18	+1.46	−0.44	−3.35	−0.84
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.85	0.48	−3.37	0.00	−0.11	−3.10	−0.15
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.39	1.99	−3.40	+0.90	−0.18	−3.70	−0.42
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	1.56	−3.41	0.00	−0.15	−2.58	−0.69
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	0.00	−3.50	0.00	−0.01	−3.08	−0.60
Air Power	National Security	4.11	0.53	−3.58	0.00	−0.11	−3.06	−0.42
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.97	5.39	−3.58	0.00	−0.74	−2.46	−0.38
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.90	4.30	−3.60	0.00	−0.38	−2.66	−0.56
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	4.80	−3.63	0.00	−0.58	−3.03	−0.03
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.18	1.54	−3.64	0.00	−0.33	−2.70	−0.62
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	6.19	2.48	−3.71	0.00	−0.42	−2.96	−0.33
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.62	3.86	−3.76	0.00	−0.47	−3.06	−0.23
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	5.75	1.97	−3.78	0.00	−0.35	−2.98	−0.45
Health System Capability	Human Capital	8.47	4.67	−3.80	0.00	−0.27	−2.41	−1.12
Land Power	National Security	5.59	1.69	−3.90	0.00	−0.30	−2.99	−0.60
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.12	0.22	−3.90	0.00	−0.05	−3.19	−0.67
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.15	4.20	−3.95	0.00	−0.14	−3.27	−0.54
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.92	3.95	−3.97	+0.29	−0.50	−3.06	−0.70
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.79	3.75	−4.04	0.00	−0.34	−2.49	−1.21
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.15	0.00	−4.15	0.00	0.00	−4.56	−0.56
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.94	4.74	−4.20	0.00	−0.42	−2.79	−0.99
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	4.66	0.37	−4.29	0.00	−0.10	−3.98	−0.21
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	6.10	1.74	−4.36	0.00	−0.24	−3.64	−0.48
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.91	2.52	−4.39	0.00	−0.30	−3.60	−0.49
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.21	1.81	−4.40	0.00	−0.23	−3.63	−0.55
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	6.33	1.86	−4.47	0.00	−0.23	−3.62	−0.62
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	6.96	2.48	−4.48	0.00	−0.30	−3.60	−0.59
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.45	0.87	−4.58	0.00	−0.09	−3.85	−0.64
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	3.39	−4.82	0.00	−0.40	−4.13	−0.29
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.21	2.35	−4.86	0.00	−0.29	−3.90	−0.67
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	5.63	0.65	−4.98	0.00	−0.13	−4.46	−0.40
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	7.76	2.77	−4.99	+0.19	−0.50	−3.63	−1.05
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	6.33	1.27	−5.06	0.00	−0.16	−4.34	−0.56
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	6.02	0.91	−5.11	0.00	−0.14	−4.73	−0.24
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	5.66	0.55	−5.11	0.00	−0.05	−4.36	−0.70
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	7.34	2.17	−5.17	+0.38	−0.28	−4.58	−0.69
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.52	3.31	−5.21	0.00	−0.32	−3.19	−1.70
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	5.22	0.00	−5.22	0.00	−0.01	−4.83	−0.81
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	7.16	1.88	−5.28	0.00	−0.15	−5.01	−0.12
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.01	2.66	−5.35	0.00	−0.20	−4.95	−0.20
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	7.71	2.27	−5.44	0.00	−0.17	−4.97	−0.30
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	7.01	1.46	−5.55	0.00	−0.18	−4.73	−0.64
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	7.50	1.89	−5.61	+0.93	−0.15	−5.91	−0.47
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.34	0.59	−5.75	0.00	−0.09	−5.21	−0.45
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	5.86	0.02	−5.84	+0.01	−0.02	−5.53	−0.29
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.27	0.00	−6.27	0.00	0.00	−6.37	−0.99
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.39	0.00	−7.39	+1.00	−0.01	−7.84	−1.07
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.76	0.30	−7.46	0.00	−0.06	−6.98	−0.43

Seed 15 of experiment cycle-002.e4-geo. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.